Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City

Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic con...

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Fecha de publicación:
2017
Institución:
Universidad de Medellín
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Repositorio UDEM
Idioma:
eng
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oai:repository.udem.edu.co:11407/4575
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/11407/4575
Palabra clave:
Architectural design; Architecture; Costs; Damage detection; Disasters; Economics; Landslides; Losses; Regional planning; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Risk perception; Risks; Urban growth; Urban planning; Earthquake-induced landslides; Economic consequences; Probabilistic approaches; Quantitative evaluation; Quantitative risk analysis; Structural condition; Structural interventions; Urban infrastructure; Economic analysis
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oai_identifier_str oai:repository.udem.edu.co:11407/4575
network_acronym_str REPOUDEM2
network_name_str Repositorio UDEM
repository_id_str
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
title Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
spellingShingle Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
Architectural design; Architecture; Costs; Damage detection; Disasters; Economics; Landslides; Losses; Regional planning; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Risk perception; Risks; Urban growth; Urban planning; Earthquake-induced landslides; Economic consequences; Probabilistic approaches; Quantitative evaluation; Quantitative risk analysis; Structural condition; Structural interventions; Urban infrastructure; Economic analysis
title_short Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
title_full Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
title_fullStr Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
title_full_unstemmed Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
title_sort Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City
dc.contributor.affiliation.spa.fl_str_mv School of Engineering, Civil and Financial Engineering Programs, University of Medellín, Medellín, Colombia
dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv Architectural design; Architecture; Costs; Damage detection; Disasters; Economics; Landslides; Losses; Regional planning; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Risk perception; Risks; Urban growth; Urban planning; Earthquake-induced landslides; Economic consequences; Probabilistic approaches; Quantitative evaluation; Quantitative risk analysis; Structural condition; Structural interventions; Urban infrastructure; Economic analysis
topic Architectural design; Architecture; Costs; Damage detection; Disasters; Economics; Landslides; Losses; Regional planning; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Risk perception; Risks; Urban growth; Urban planning; Earthquake-induced landslides; Economic consequences; Probabilistic approaches; Quantitative evaluation; Quantitative risk analysis; Structural condition; Structural interventions; Urban infrastructure; Economic analysis
description Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.
publishDate 2017
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv 2017
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2018-04-13T16:35:24Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2018-04-13T16:35:24Z
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv Conference Paper
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dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 17578981
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/11407/4575
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1088/1757-899X/245/6/062010
identifier_str_mv 17578981
10.1088/1757-899X/245/6/062010
url http://hdl.handle.net/11407/4575
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.isversionof.spa.fl_str_mv https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85033795713&doi=10.1088%2f1757-899X%2f245%2f6%2f062010&partnerID=40&md5=fe97442b8562994cacda49250b04acfa
dc.relation.ispartofes.spa.fl_str_mv IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering
dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv Vega, J.A., (2013) Application to Urban Buildings, p. 51. , (La Plata: Engineering Astronomical and Geophysical Sciences, National University of La Plata) Risk Estimate by Landslides Generated by Seismic Events in Medellin Using Tools of Geomatics; Isaza-Restrepo, P.A., Martinez, H.E., Hidalgo, C.A., Methodology for quantitative landslide risk analysis in residential projects (2016) Habitat International, 53, pp. 403-412. , April; Chowdhury, R., Flentje, P., Bhattacharya, G., (2010), p. 737. , (London: Taylor amp; Francis) Geotechnical Slope Analysis; Hidalgo, C., Vega, J.A., Hazard estimation for landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall (aburrá valley-Colombia) (Spanish) (2014) Revista EIA, 11, pp. 103-117; Vega, J.A., Hidalgo, C.A., Quantitative risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall based on direct costs of urban buildings (2016) Geomorphology, 273, pp. 217-235; Parra, M., (2015), p. 80. , (Medelliacute;n: Universidad Nacional de Colombia) Model for the study of the threat of mass movements detonated by rains in the Llanaditas neighborhood of the city of Medelliacute;n (Spanish); Hidalgo, C.A., Vega, J.A., Assis, A.P., Villarraga, M.R., (2012) Proceedings of IV Panamerican Simposium on Landslides, , (Paipa) Estimation of landslides hazard in linear projects: roads in residual soils (Spanish); Hidalgo, C.A., (2013), p. 250. , (Brasilia: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasilia) Uncertainty, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Due to landslide on Roads (Portuguese); Silva, M., Pereira, S., Assessment of physical vulnerability and potential losses of buildings due to shallow slides (2014) Nat Hazards, 72 (2), pp. 1029-1050; Leone, F., Asté, J.P., Leroi, E., (1996) Landslides-Glissements de Terrain, pp. 263-270. , (Rotterdam) Vulnerability assessment of elements exposed to mass movements: working toward a better risk perception; Papathoma-Kohle, M., Zischg, A., Fuchs, S., Glade, T., Keiler, M., Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas - An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation (2015) Environmental Modelling & Software, 63, pp. 156-169; Zêrere, J., García, R., Oliveira, S., Reis, E., Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal) (2008) Geomorphology, 94 (3-4), pp. 467-495; Uzielli, M., Nadim, F., Lacasse, S., Kaynia, A., A conceptual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides (2008) Eng. Geol, 102 (3-4), pp. 251-256; Hazus, (2003), (Jessup, Maryland) Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology earthquake model; (2014), (Medelliacute;n) Cadastral Inventory Geodatabase; (2010) Association of Earthquake Engineering, , (Spanish) Colombian Code for Earthquake-resistant Construction NSR-10; Korup, H.Y., Without power? Landslide inventories in the face of climate change (2012) Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 37 (1), pp. 92-99. , G T.O; Goetz, B.A., Integrating physical and empirical landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models (2011) Geomorphology, 129 (3-4), pp. 376-386. , R H.J.N.G; Bui, C.T.T., A Comparative Assessment between the Application of Fuzzy Unordered Rules Induction Algorithm and J48 Decision Tree Models in Spatial Prediction of Shallow Landslides at Lang Son City, Vietnam (2014) Remote Sensing Applications in Environmental Research, pp. 87-111. , R I.D.T.P.B; Fan, G.T., Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation (2014) Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 39 (14), pp. 1913-1926. , X Q.X.R.D.G.W.C.J; Efron, B.T.R., (1993), (Chapman and Hall) An Introduction to the Bootstrap; Park, C.M., Confidence intervals for evaluating benefits estimates from dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies (1991) Land Economics, 67 (1), pp. 64-73. , J B.T.L
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spelling 2018-04-13T16:35:24Z2018-04-13T16:35:24Z201717578981http://hdl.handle.net/11407/457510.1088/1757-899X/245/6/062010Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.engInstitute of Physics PublishingFacultad de Ingenieríashttps://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85033795713&doi=10.1088%2f1757-899X%2f245%2f6%2f062010&partnerID=40&md5=fe97442b8562994cacda49250b04acfaIOP Conference Series: Materials Science and EngineeringVega, J.A., (2013) Application to Urban Buildings, p. 51. , (La Plata: Engineering Astronomical and Geophysical Sciences, National University of La Plata) Risk Estimate by Landslides Generated by Seismic Events in Medellin Using Tools of Geomatics; Isaza-Restrepo, P.A., Martinez, H.E., Hidalgo, C.A., Methodology for quantitative landslide risk analysis in residential projects (2016) Habitat International, 53, pp. 403-412. , April; Chowdhury, R., Flentje, P., Bhattacharya, G., (2010), p. 737. , (London: Taylor amp; Francis) Geotechnical Slope Analysis; Hidalgo, C., Vega, J.A., Hazard estimation for landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall (aburrá valley-Colombia) (Spanish) (2014) Revista EIA, 11, pp. 103-117; Vega, J.A., Hidalgo, C.A., Quantitative risk assessment of landslides triggered by earthquakes and rainfall based on direct costs of urban buildings (2016) Geomorphology, 273, pp. 217-235; Parra, M., (2015), p. 80. , (Medelliacute;n: Universidad Nacional de Colombia) Model for the study of the threat of mass movements detonated by rains in the Llanaditas neighborhood of the city of Medelliacute;n (Spanish); Hidalgo, C.A., Vega, J.A., Assis, A.P., Villarraga, M.R., (2012) Proceedings of IV Panamerican Simposium on Landslides, , (Paipa) Estimation of landslides hazard in linear projects: roads in residual soils (Spanish); Hidalgo, C.A., (2013), p. 250. , (Brasilia: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Brasilia) Uncertainty, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Due to landslide on Roads (Portuguese); Silva, M., Pereira, S., Assessment of physical vulnerability and potential losses of buildings due to shallow slides (2014) Nat Hazards, 72 (2), pp. 1029-1050; Leone, F., Asté, J.P., Leroi, E., (1996) Landslides-Glissements de Terrain, pp. 263-270. , (Rotterdam) Vulnerability assessment of elements exposed to mass movements: working toward a better risk perception; Papathoma-Kohle, M., Zischg, A., Fuchs, S., Glade, T., Keiler, M., Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas - An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation (2015) Environmental Modelling & Software, 63, pp. 156-169; Zêrere, J., García, R., Oliveira, S., Reis, E., Probabilistic landslide risk analysis considering direct costs in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal) (2008) Geomorphology, 94 (3-4), pp. 467-495; Uzielli, M., Nadim, F., Lacasse, S., Kaynia, A., A conceptual framework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides (2008) Eng. Geol, 102 (3-4), pp. 251-256; Hazus, (2003), (Jessup, Maryland) Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology earthquake model; (2014), (Medelliacute;n) Cadastral Inventory Geodatabase; (2010) Association of Earthquake Engineering, , (Spanish) Colombian Code for Earthquake-resistant Construction NSR-10; Korup, H.Y., Without power? Landslide inventories in the face of climate change (2012) Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 37 (1), pp. 92-99. , G T.O; Goetz, B.A., Integrating physical and empirical landslide susceptibility models using generalized additive models (2011) Geomorphology, 129 (3-4), pp. 376-386. , R H.J.N.G; Bui, C.T.T., A Comparative Assessment between the Application of Fuzzy Unordered Rules Induction Algorithm and J48 Decision Tree Models in Spatial Prediction of Shallow Landslides at Lang Son City, Vietnam (2014) Remote Sensing Applications in Environmental Research, pp. 87-111. , R I.D.T.P.B; Fan, G.T., Empirical prediction of coseismic landslide dam formation (2014) Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 39 (14), pp. 1913-1926. , X Q.X.R.D.G.W.C.J; Efron, B.T.R., (1993), (Chapman and Hall) An Introduction to the Bootstrap; Park, C.M., Confidence intervals for evaluating benefits estimates from dichotomous choice contingent valuation studies (1991) Land Economics, 67 (1), pp. 64-73. , J B.T.LScopusLandslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin CityConference Paperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObjecthttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_c94fSchool of Engineering, Civil and Financial Engineering Programs, University of Medellín, Medellín, ColombiaVega J.A., Hidalgo C.A., Marín N.J.Vega, J.A., School of Engineering, Civil and Financial Engineering Programs, University of Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; Hidalgo, C.A., School of Engineering, Civil and Financial Engineering Programs, University of Medellín, Medellín, Colombia; Marín, N.J., School of Engineering, Civil and Financial Engineering Programs, University of Medellín, Medellín, ColombiaArchitectural design; Architecture; Costs; Damage detection; Disasters; Economics; Landslides; Losses; Regional planning; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk management; Risk perception; Risks; Urban growth; Urban planning; Earthquake-induced landslides; Economic consequences; Probabilistic approaches; Quantitative evaluation; Quantitative risk analysis; Structural condition; Structural interventions; Urban infrastructure; Economic analysisNatural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ecTHUMBNAIL31. Landslide Risk Economic Valuation in The North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City.pdf.jpg31. Landslide Risk Economic Valuation in The North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg4064http://repository.udem.edu.co/bitstream/11407/4575/2/31.%20Landslide%20Risk%20Economic%20Valuation%20in%20The%20North-Eastern%20Zone%20of%20Medellin%20City.pdf.jpg78cc858f895bd8c974d07a76386dd697MD52ORIGINAL31. Landslide Risk Economic Valuation in The North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City.pdf31. Landslide Risk Economic Valuation in The North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City.pdfapplication/pdf826815http://repository.udem.edu.co/bitstream/11407/4575/1/31.%20Landslide%20Risk%20Economic%20Valuation%20in%20The%20North-Eastern%20Zone%20of%20Medellin%20City.pdf2118488042f62ca926767f2e6ac57ef5MD5111407/4575oai:repository.udem.edu.co:11407/45752020-05-27 19:15:37.072Repositorio Institucional Universidad de Medellinrepositorio@udem.edu.co