Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia

The aim of this paper is to propose optimal strategies for dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia. For this purpose, we consider two variants of a simple dengue transmission model, epidemic and endemic, each of which is amended with two control variables. These variables express feasible...

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Autores:
Sepúlveda Salcedo, Lilian Sofía
Vasillieva, Olga
Tipo de recurso:
Article of journal
Fecha de publicación:
2016
Institución:
Universidad Autónoma de Occidente
Repositorio:
RED: Repositorio Educativo Digital UAO
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:red.uao.edu.co:10614/11048
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/10614/11048
https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.3932
Palabra clave:
Ross–Macdonald model
SIR-SI model; optimal control
cost-effectiveness analysis
Dengue
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closedAccess
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Derechos Reservados - John Wiley and Sons Ltd
id REPOUAO2_b5afab77e4afee2f63d4c66e55a8f184
oai_identifier_str oai:red.uao.edu.co:10614/11048
network_acronym_str REPOUAO2
network_name_str RED: Repositorio Educativo Digital UAO
repository_id_str
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
title Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
spellingShingle Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
Ross–Macdonald model
SIR-SI model; optimal control
cost-effectiveness analysis
Dengue
title_short Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
title_full Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
title_fullStr Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
title_full_unstemmed Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
title_sort Optimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Sepúlveda Salcedo, Lilian Sofía
Vasillieva, Olga
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv Sepúlveda Salcedo, Lilian Sofía
Vasillieva, Olga
dc.subject.eng.fl_str_mv Ross–Macdonald model
SIR-SI model; optimal control
cost-effectiveness analysis
topic Ross–Macdonald model
SIR-SI model; optimal control
cost-effectiveness analysis
Dengue
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv Dengue
description The aim of this paper is to propose optimal strategies for dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia. For this purpose, we consider two variants of a simple dengue transmission model, epidemic and endemic, each of which is amended with two control variables. These variables express feasible control actions to be taken by an external decision‐maker. First control variable stands for the insecticide spraying and thus targets to suppress the vector population. The second one expresses the protective measures (such as use of repellents, mosquito nets, and insecticide‐treated clothes) that are destined to reduce the number of contacts (bites) between female mosquitoes (principal dengue transmitters) and human individuals. We use the Pontryagin's maximum principle in order to derive the optimal strategies for dengue control and then perform the cost‐effectiveness analysis of these strategies in order to choose the most sustainable one in terms of cost–benefit relationship. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
publishDate 2016
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2016-05-27
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2019-09-04T21:47:27Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2019-09-04T21:47:27Z
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo de revista
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.coar.eng.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.content.eng.fl_str_mv Text
dc.type.driver.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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dc.type.version.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv 1099-1476 (en línea)
0170-4214 (impresa)
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10614/11048
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.3932
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad Autónoma de Occidente
dc.identifier.reponame.eng.fl_str_mv Repositorio Educativo Digital UAO
identifier_str_mv 1099-1476 (en línea)
0170-4214 (impresa)
Universidad Autónoma de Occidente
Repositorio Educativo Digital UAO
url http://hdl.handle.net/10614/11048
https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.3932
dc.language.iso.eng.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.citationissue.spa.fl_str_mv 18
dc.relation.citationvolume.spa.fl_str_mv 39
dc.relation.ispartofbook.eng.fl_str_mv Mathematical methods in the applied sciences
dc.relation.references.spa.fl_str_mv BrownJ,McBrideC,JohnsonP,RitchieS,PaupyC,BossinH,LutomiahJ,Fernandez-SalasI,PonlawatA,CornelA,BlackW,Gorrochotegui-EscalanteN, Urdaneta-MarquezL,SyllaM,SlotmanM,MurrayK,WalkerC,PowellJ.Worldwidepatternsofgeneticdifferentiationimplymultiple’domestications
Tapia-ConyerR,Mendez-GalvanJF,Gallardo-RinconH.ThegrowingburdenofdengueinLatinAmerica.JournalofClinicalVirology 2009;46:S3–S6
Lopez-Gatell H, Hernandez-Avila M, Avila JEH, Alpuche-Aranda CM. Dengue in Latin America: a persistent and growing public health challenge. InNeglectedTropicalDiseases-LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Springer:Vienna,2015;203–224
Dick OB, San Martín JL, Montoya RH, del Diego J, Zambrano B, Dayan GH. The history of dengue outbreaks in the Americas. TheAmericanjournalof tropicalmedicineandhygiene2012;87(4):584–593
GuzmánMG,KouríG.Denguediagnosis,advancesandchallenges.InternationalJournalofInfectiousDiseases2004;8(2):69–80
Messer W, de Alwis R, Yount B, Royal S, Huynh J, Smith S, Crowe J, Doranz B.J, Kahle K, Pfaff J, Whitej L, Sariolk C, de Silvac A, Baric R. Dengue virus envelopeproteindomainI/IIhingedetermineslong-livedserotype-specificdengueimmunity.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences2014; 111(5):1939–1944
StateoftheArtinthePreventionandControlofDengueintheAmericas.PAHO–WHO:Washington,DC,2014
MendezF,BarretoM,AriasJ,RengifoG,MunozJ,BurbanoM,ParraB.Humanandmosquitoinfectionsbydenguevirusesduringandafterepidemics inadengue–endemicregionofColombia.TheAmericanJournalofTropicalMedicineandHygiene2006;74(4):678–683
Ocazionez RE, Cortés FM, Villar LA, Gómez SY. Temporal distribution of dengue virus serotypes in Colombian endemic area and dengue incidence: re-introductionofdengue-3associatedtomildfebrileillnessandprimaryinfection. MemóriasdoInstitutoOswaldoCruz 2006;101(7):725–731
Ocampo CB, Mina NJ, Carabalí M, Alexander N, Osorio L. Reduction in dengue cases observed during mass control of Aedes (Stegomyia) in street catchbasinsinanendemicurbanareainColombia.ActaTropica 2014;132:15–22
Rial MJ, Alarcón N, Ferrario C, Szefner M, Califano G. Corredores endémicos: Una herramienta útil para la vigilancia epidemiológica de la influenza [Endemiccorridors:ausefultoolfortheepidemiologicalsurveillanceofinfluenza].RevistaArgentinademicrobiologia2007;40(1):37–40
CaetanoM,YoneyamaT.Optimalandsub-optimalcontrolindengueepidemics.OptimalControlApplicationsandMethods2001;22(2):63–73
BlaynehK,CaoY,KwonHD.Optimalcontrolofvector-bornediseases:treatmentandprevention.DiscreteandContinuousDynamicalSystemsB2009; 11(3):587–611
Aldila D, Götz T, Soewono E. An optimal control problem arising from a dengue disease transmission model. Mathematical Biosciences 2013; 242(1):9–16
AlpheyN,AlpheyL,BonsallMB.Amodelframeworktoestimateimpactandcostofgenetics-basedsterileinsectmethodsfordenguevectorcontrol. PLoSOne2011;6(10):e25384–e25384
Okosun KO, Ouifki R, Marcus N. Optimal control analysis of a malaria disease transmission model that includes treatment and vaccination with waningimmunity.Biosystems2011;106(2):136–145
OkosunKO,RachidO,MarcusN.Optimalcontrolstrategiesandcost-effectivenessanalysisofamalariamodel. BioSystems2013;111(2):83–101
Parham PE, Hughes DA. Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios. PhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSocietyofLondonB:BiologicalSciences2015;370(1665):1–15.PaperID:20130557
RossR.ThePreventionofMalaria.JohnMurray:London,1911
MacdonaldG.TheEpidemiologyandControlofMalaria.OxfordUniversityPress:Oxford,1957
Aron JL, May RM. The population dynamics of malaria. In Population Dynamics and Infectious Disease: Theory and Applications, Anderson RM (ed). ChapmanandHall:London,1982;139–179
AndersonRM,MayRM.InfectiousDiseasesofHumans:DynamicsandControl,OxfordSciencePublications.OUPOxford,1992
SmithDL,BattleKE,HaySI,BarkerCM,ScottTW,McKenzieFE.Ross,Macdonald,andatheoryforthedynamicsandcontrolofmosquito-transmitted pathogens.PLoSPathog2012;8(4):1–13.PaperID:e1002588
Villar LA, Rojas DP, Besada-LS, Sarti E. Epidemiological trends of dengue disease in Colombia (2000–2011): a systematic review. PLoS neglected tropicaldiseases2015;9(3):e0003499–e0003499
SepúlvedaLS.Manejo óptimoyviableenmodelosepidemiológicosdeldengue[Optimalandviablemanagementindengueepidemiologicalmodels], Ph.D.Thesis,UniversitéParis-Est&UniverdidadNacionaldeColombia,2015
Sepúlveda-SalcedoLS,VasilievaO,Martínez-RomeroHJ,Arias-CastroJH.Ross-Macdonald:UnmodeloparaladinámicadeldengueenCali,Colombia [Ross-Macdonald:AmodelforthedenguedynamicinCali,Colombia].RevistadeSaludPública2015;17(5):749–761
JoshiHR.OptimalcontrolofanHIVimmunologymodel.OptimalControlApplicationsandMethods2002;23(4):199–213
JungE,LenhartS,FengZ.Optimalcontroloftreatmentsinatwo-straintuberculosismodel.DiscreteandContinuousDynamicalSystemsSeriesB2002; 2(4):473–482
Gaff H, Schaefer E. Optimal control applied to vaccination and treatment strategies for various epidemiological models. Mathematical Biosciences andEngineering2009;6(3):469–492
Neilan RM, Lenhart S. An introduction to optimal control with an application in disease modeling. DIMACSSeriesinDiscreteMathematics 2010; 75: 67–81
BiswasMHA,PaivaLT,dePinhoMdR.ASEIRmodelforcontrolofinfectiousdiseaseswithconstraints.MathematicalBiosciencesandEngineering2014; 11(4):761–784
MoulayD,Aziz-AlaouiMA,KwonHD.Optimalcontrolofchikungunyadisease:larvaereduction,treatmentandprevention.MathematicalBiosciences andEngineering2012;9(2):369–392
CoddingtonE,LevinsonN.TheoryofOrdinaryDifferentialEquations 9thed.McGraw-Hill:NewYork,1987
WalterW.OrdinaryDifferentialEquations,GraduateTextsinMathematics.Springer:NewYork,1998
FlemingW,RishelR.DeterministicandStochasticOptimalControl.Springer:NewYork,1975
Pontryagin LS, Boltyanskii VG, Gamkrelidze RV, Mishchenko EF. TheMathematicalTheoryofOptimalProcesses. Interscience Publishers, John Wiley & Sons:NewYork,1962
LenhartS,WorkmanJT.OptimalControlAppliedtoBiologicalModels.Chapman&Hall/CRC:BocaRaton,FL,2007
BrauerF,Castillo-ChávezC.MathematicalModelsinPopulationBiologyandEpidemiology,TextsinAppliedMathematics,vol.40.Springer-Verlag:New York,2001
Castillo-Chávez C, Thieme HR. Asymptotically autonomous epidemic models. Mathematical Population Dynamics: Analysis of Heterogeneity, Winnipeg,Canada:Wuerz,1995,33–50
JansenCC,BeebeNW.ThedenguevectorAedesaegypti:whatcomesnext.MicrobesandInfection2010;12(4):272–279
Santacoloma L, Chaves B, Brochero HL. Susceptibility of natural populations of dengue vector to insecticides in Colombia. Biomédica 2012; 32(3):333–343
Menger DJ, Van Loon JJA, Takken W. Assessing the efficacy of candidate mosquito repellents against the background of an attractive source that mimicsahumanhost.MedicalandVeterinaryEntomology 2014;28(4):407–413
Bello S, Díaz E, Rojas J, Romero M, Salazar V. Medición del impacto económico del dengue en Colombia: una aproximación a los costos médicos directos en el periodo 2000-2010 [MeasuringtheeconomicimpactofdengueinColombia:anapproximationtothedirectmedicalcostsin2000-2010]. Biomédica2011;31(sup3):110–113
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spelling Sepúlveda Salcedo, Lilian Sofíavirtual::4685-1Vasillieva, Olga8192a3cb04cd7d52c219424345b35dc3Cali, Colombia2019-09-04T21:47:27Z2019-09-04T21:47:27Z2016-05-271099-1476 (en línea)0170-4214 (impresa)http://hdl.handle.net/10614/11048https://doi.org/10.1002/mma.3932Universidad Autónoma de OccidenteRepositorio Educativo Digital UAOThe aim of this paper is to propose optimal strategies for dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, Colombia. For this purpose, we consider two variants of a simple dengue transmission model, epidemic and endemic, each of which is amended with two control variables. These variables express feasible control actions to be taken by an external decision‐maker. First control variable stands for the insecticide spraying and thus targets to suppress the vector population. The second one expresses the protective measures (such as use of repellents, mosquito nets, and insecticide‐treated clothes) that are destined to reduce the number of contacts (bites) between female mosquitoes (principal dengue transmitters) and human individuals. We use the Pontryagin's maximum principle in order to derive the optimal strategies for dengue control and then perform the cost‐effectiveness analysis of these strategies in order to choose the most sustainable one in terms of cost–benefit relationship. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd22 páginasapplication/pdfengJohn Wiley and Sons LtdDerechos Reservados - John Wiley and Sons Ltdhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cbRoss–Macdonald modelSIR-SI model; optimal controlcost-effectiveness analysisDengueOptimal control approach to dengue reduction and prevention in Cali, ColombiaArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTREFinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a851839Mathematical methods in the applied sciencesBrownJ,McBrideC,JohnsonP,RitchieS,PaupyC,BossinH,LutomiahJ,Fernandez-SalasI,PonlawatA,CornelA,BlackW,Gorrochotegui-EscalanteN, Urdaneta-MarquezL,SyllaM,SlotmanM,MurrayK,WalkerC,PowellJ.Worldwidepatternsofgeneticdifferentiationimplymultiple’domesticationsTapia-ConyerR,Mendez-GalvanJF,Gallardo-RinconH.ThegrowingburdenofdengueinLatinAmerica.JournalofClinicalVirology 2009;46:S3–S6Lopez-Gatell H, Hernandez-Avila M, Avila JEH, Alpuche-Aranda CM. Dengue in Latin America: a persistent and growing public health challenge. InNeglectedTropicalDiseases-LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Springer:Vienna,2015;203–224Dick OB, San Martín JL, Montoya RH, del Diego J, Zambrano B, Dayan GH. The history of dengue outbreaks in the Americas. TheAmericanjournalof tropicalmedicineandhygiene2012;87(4):584–593GuzmánMG,KouríG.Denguediagnosis,advancesandchallenges.InternationalJournalofInfectiousDiseases2004;8(2):69–80Messer W, de Alwis R, Yount B, Royal S, Huynh J, Smith S, Crowe J, Doranz B.J, Kahle K, Pfaff J, Whitej L, Sariolk C, de Silvac A, Baric R. Dengue virus envelopeproteindomainI/IIhingedetermineslong-livedserotype-specificdengueimmunity.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences2014; 111(5):1939–1944StateoftheArtinthePreventionandControlofDengueintheAmericas.PAHO–WHO:Washington,DC,2014MendezF,BarretoM,AriasJ,RengifoG,MunozJ,BurbanoM,ParraB.Humanandmosquitoinfectionsbydenguevirusesduringandafterepidemics inadengue–endemicregionofColombia.TheAmericanJournalofTropicalMedicineandHygiene2006;74(4):678–683Ocazionez RE, Cortés FM, Villar LA, Gómez SY. Temporal distribution of dengue virus serotypes in Colombian endemic area and dengue incidence: re-introductionofdengue-3associatedtomildfebrileillnessandprimaryinfection. MemóriasdoInstitutoOswaldoCruz 2006;101(7):725–731Ocampo CB, Mina NJ, Carabalí M, Alexander N, Osorio L. Reduction in dengue cases observed during mass control of Aedes (Stegomyia) in street catchbasinsinanendemicurbanareainColombia.ActaTropica 2014;132:15–22Rial MJ, Alarcón N, Ferrario C, Szefner M, Califano G. Corredores endémicos: Una herramienta útil para la vigilancia epidemiológica de la influenza [Endemiccorridors:ausefultoolfortheepidemiologicalsurveillanceofinfluenza].RevistaArgentinademicrobiologia2007;40(1):37–40CaetanoM,YoneyamaT.Optimalandsub-optimalcontrolindengueepidemics.OptimalControlApplicationsandMethods2001;22(2):63–73BlaynehK,CaoY,KwonHD.Optimalcontrolofvector-bornediseases:treatmentandprevention.DiscreteandContinuousDynamicalSystemsB2009; 11(3):587–611Aldila D, Götz T, Soewono E. An optimal control problem arising from a dengue disease transmission model. Mathematical Biosciences 2013; 242(1):9–16AlpheyN,AlpheyL,BonsallMB.Amodelframeworktoestimateimpactandcostofgenetics-basedsterileinsectmethodsfordenguevectorcontrol. PLoSOne2011;6(10):e25384–e25384Okosun KO, Ouifki R, Marcus N. Optimal control analysis of a malaria disease transmission model that includes treatment and vaccination with waningimmunity.Biosystems2011;106(2):136–145OkosunKO,RachidO,MarcusN.Optimalcontrolstrategiesandcost-effectivenessanalysisofamalariamodel. BioSystems2013;111(2):83–101Parham PE, Hughes DA. Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios. PhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSocietyofLondonB:BiologicalSciences2015;370(1665):1–15.PaperID:20130557RossR.ThePreventionofMalaria.JohnMurray:London,1911MacdonaldG.TheEpidemiologyandControlofMalaria.OxfordUniversityPress:Oxford,1957Aron JL, May RM. The population dynamics of malaria. In Population Dynamics and Infectious Disease: Theory and Applications, Anderson RM (ed). ChapmanandHall:London,1982;139–179AndersonRM,MayRM.InfectiousDiseasesofHumans:DynamicsandControl,OxfordSciencePublications.OUPOxford,1992SmithDL,BattleKE,HaySI,BarkerCM,ScottTW,McKenzieFE.Ross,Macdonald,andatheoryforthedynamicsandcontrolofmosquito-transmitted pathogens.PLoSPathog2012;8(4):1–13.PaperID:e1002588Villar LA, Rojas DP, Besada-LS, Sarti E. Epidemiological trends of dengue disease in Colombia (2000–2011): a systematic review. PLoS neglected tropicaldiseases2015;9(3):e0003499–e0003499SepúlvedaLS.Manejo óptimoyviableenmodelosepidemiológicosdeldengue[Optimalandviablemanagementindengueepidemiologicalmodels], Ph.D.Thesis,UniversitéParis-Est&UniverdidadNacionaldeColombia,2015Sepúlveda-SalcedoLS,VasilievaO,Martínez-RomeroHJ,Arias-CastroJH.Ross-Macdonald:UnmodeloparaladinámicadeldengueenCali,Colombia [Ross-Macdonald:AmodelforthedenguedynamicinCali,Colombia].RevistadeSaludPública2015;17(5):749–761JoshiHR.OptimalcontrolofanHIVimmunologymodel.OptimalControlApplicationsandMethods2002;23(4):199–213JungE,LenhartS,FengZ.Optimalcontroloftreatmentsinatwo-straintuberculosismodel.DiscreteandContinuousDynamicalSystemsSeriesB2002; 2(4):473–482Gaff H, Schaefer E. Optimal control applied to vaccination and treatment strategies for various epidemiological models. Mathematical Biosciences andEngineering2009;6(3):469–492Neilan RM, Lenhart S. An introduction to optimal control with an application in disease modeling. DIMACSSeriesinDiscreteMathematics 2010; 75: 67–81BiswasMHA,PaivaLT,dePinhoMdR.ASEIRmodelforcontrolofinfectiousdiseaseswithconstraints.MathematicalBiosciencesandEngineering2014; 11(4):761–784MoulayD,Aziz-AlaouiMA,KwonHD.Optimalcontrolofchikungunyadisease:larvaereduction,treatmentandprevention.MathematicalBiosciences andEngineering2012;9(2):369–392CoddingtonE,LevinsonN.TheoryofOrdinaryDifferentialEquations 9thed.McGraw-Hill:NewYork,1987WalterW.OrdinaryDifferentialEquations,GraduateTextsinMathematics.Springer:NewYork,1998FlemingW,RishelR.DeterministicandStochasticOptimalControl.Springer:NewYork,1975Pontryagin LS, Boltyanskii VG, Gamkrelidze RV, Mishchenko EF. TheMathematicalTheoryofOptimalProcesses. Interscience Publishers, John Wiley & Sons:NewYork,1962LenhartS,WorkmanJT.OptimalControlAppliedtoBiologicalModels.Chapman&Hall/CRC:BocaRaton,FL,2007BrauerF,Castillo-ChávezC.MathematicalModelsinPopulationBiologyandEpidemiology,TextsinAppliedMathematics,vol.40.Springer-Verlag:New York,2001Castillo-Chávez C, Thieme HR. Asymptotically autonomous epidemic models. Mathematical Population Dynamics: Analysis of Heterogeneity, Winnipeg,Canada:Wuerz,1995,33–50JansenCC,BeebeNW.ThedenguevectorAedesaegypti:whatcomesnext.MicrobesandInfection2010;12(4):272–279Santacoloma L, Chaves B, Brochero HL. Susceptibility of natural populations of dengue vector to insecticides in Colombia. Biomédica 2012; 32(3):333–343Menger DJ, Van Loon JJA, Takken W. Assessing the efficacy of candidate mosquito repellents against the background of an attractive source that mimicsahumanhost.MedicalandVeterinaryEntomology 2014;28(4):407–413Bello S, Díaz E, Rojas J, Romero M, Salazar V. 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