Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term
The recent auction of rm energy and the decisions on medium-term coverage give rise to risks in the supply of electricity in Colombia in the coming periods. Taking into account the possible risks that may arise, such as: non-compliance with FEO due to generation units (six [6] non-compliances durin...
- Autores:
-
Moreno-Chuquen, Ricardo
Cantillo Luna, Sergio Alejandro
Carrillo Rodríguez, Lilian Andrea
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of journal
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2021
- Institución:
- Universidad Autónoma de Occidente
- Repositorio:
- RED: Repositorio Educativo Digital UAO
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:red.uao.edu.co:10614/13877
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/10614/13877
https://red.uao.edu.co/
- Palabra clave:
- Producción de energía eléctrica
Electric power production
Reliability Charge
Firm Energy
Firm Energy Obligation
Risk
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- Derechos reservados - Econjournals, 2021
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Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term |
| title |
Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term |
| spellingShingle |
Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term Producción de energía eléctrica Electric power production Reliability Charge Firm Energy Firm Energy Obligation Risk |
| title_short |
Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term |
| title_full |
Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term |
| title_fullStr |
Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term |
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Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term |
| title_sort |
Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Moreno-Chuquen, Ricardo Cantillo Luna, Sergio Alejandro Carrillo Rodríguez, Lilian Andrea |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Moreno-Chuquen, Ricardo Cantillo Luna, Sergio Alejandro Carrillo Rodríguez, Lilian Andrea |
| dc.subject.armarc.spa.fl_str_mv |
Producción de energía eléctrica |
| topic |
Producción de energía eléctrica Electric power production Reliability Charge Firm Energy Firm Energy Obligation Risk |
| dc.subject.armarc.eng.fl_str_mv |
Electric power production |
| dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
Reliability Charge Firm Energy Firm Energy Obligation Risk |
| description |
The recent auction of rm energy and the decisions on medium-term coverage give rise to risks in the supply of electricity in Colombia in the coming periods. Taking into account the possible risks that may arise, such as: non-compliance with FEO due to generation units (six [6] non-compliances during 2015-2016 term), the delay of generation projects with committed rm energy (Hidroituango case) and the availability of rm energy in the market, imply a systemic risk for the electric power supply in the medium term. Through the study of technical documents and resolutions, issued by the CREG, about the medium term energy balances in 2018, rm energy supply and demand balances were reconstructed, including the results of the last FEO auction carried out in the rst quarter of 2019, in order to carry out a risk analysis based on these same scenarios. It was observed that the amount of FEO auctioned exceeds the quantity of demand projected, meaning that the CREG assumed a conservative position by purchasing more energy than necessary (8650 GWh-year and 1027 GWh-year respectively), this is a situation that has occurred on more than one occasion |
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2022-05-16T19:54:37Z |
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2022-05-16T19:54:37Z |
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Moreno, R., Cantillo, S. A., Carrillo Rodríguez, L.A. (2021). Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. Vol.11 (2), pp. 220-226. |
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International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy |
| dc.relation.references.eng.fl_str_mv |
Arias-Gaviria, J., Carvajal-Quintero, S., Arango-Aramburo, S. (2019), Understanding dynamics and policy for renewable energy diffusion in Colombia. Renewable Energy, 139, 1111-1119. Asociación Colombiana de Generadores de Energía (ACOLGEN). (2019), Análisis de la Evolución del Cargo Por Confiabilidad. Available from: https://www.acolgen.org.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/acolgen_ analisis-de-la-evolucio%cc%81n-del-cargo-por-confiabilidad.pdf. Barrientos, J., Villada, F. (2020), Regionalized discount rate to evaluate renewable energy projects in Colombia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(2), 332-336. Bedoya, J.C., Rodas, E.A., García, D.F. (2016), Aspectos comerciales del esquema del cargo por confiabilidad en el mercado eléctrico Colombiano. Scientia et Technica, 21(1), 5. Buriticá-Arboleda, C., Ramírez-Escobar, C., Álvarez-Bel, C. (2019), La Seguridad de Abastecimiento Eléctrico en Mercados Liberalizados. Bogotá: Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas. Cabello, J., Morejón, M.B., Gutiérrez, A.S., García, A.P., Ulloa, M.C., Martínez, F.J.R., Rueda-Bayona, J.G. (2019), A look to the electricity generation from non-conventional renewable energy sources in Colombia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(1), 15-25. Castro, A.O., Robles-Algarín, C., Gallardo, R.P. (2019), Analysis of energy management and financial planning in the implementation of PV systems. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(4), 1-11. Cramton, P. (2015), Colombia Firm Energy Auction: Descending Clock or Sealed-Bid? Available from: https://www.creg.gov.co/images/ contenidos_estaticos/documentos/cramton-colombia-firm-energyauction-format.pdf. CREG. (2006a), Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. Por la Cual se Adopta la Metodología Para la Remuneración del Cargo Por Confiabilidad en el Mercado Mayorista de Energía, Resolución No. 071. CREG. (2006b), Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. Por la Cual se Adicionan, Aclaran y Modifican Algunas Disposiciones de la Resolución CREG-071 de 2006, Resolución No. 079. CREG Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. (2007), Manual del Programa Para Calcular la Energía Firme Para el Cargo por Confiabilidad de Plantas Hidráulicas. CREG Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. (2018a), Documento Técnico CREG-050-2018-Subasta del Cargo por Confiabilidad 2022-2023. CREG. (2018b), Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. Por la Cual se Fija la Oportunidad Para Llevar a Cabo la Subasta Para la Asignación de las Obligaciones de Energía Firme del Cargo por Confiabilidad Para el Período Comprendido Entre el 1 de Diciembre de 2022 y el 30 de Noviembre de 2023 y se Hacen Modificaciones a la Resolución CREG 071 de 2006, Resolución No. 064. CREG Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. (2018c), Documento Técnico CREG-075-2018 Subasta de Expansión del Cargo por Confiabilidad 2022-2023. Forero, J.D., Hernandez, B., Orozco, W., Acuña, N., Wilches, M.J. (2019), Analysis of the use of renewable energies in Colombia and the potential application of thermoelectric devices for energy recovery. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(5), 125-134. Garcia-Rendón, J., Pérez-Libreros, A. (2019), The Electricity Spot Price and Inclusion of Non-Conventional Renewable Energies: Evidence for Colombia. Available from: https://www.ssrn.com/ abstract=3443910. Gonzalez-Castellanos, A., Pozo, D., Martinez, S., Lopez, L., Oliveros, I. (2018), Economic Impact of Wind Generation Penetration in the Colombian Electricity Market, arXiv Preprint No. 1810.11458. Harbord, D. (2016), CREG Expert Panel on Colombian Energy Market Reform. Available from: http://www.apolo.creg.gov.co/publicac.ns f/52188526a7290f8505256eee0072eba7/536e4d4ad166cd5a052580420070e8d0/$file/circular069-2016%20anexo2.pdf. Obregon, L., Valencia, G., Duarte, J. (2019), Study on the applicability of sustainable development policies in electricity generation systems in Colombia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(6), 492-502. Olaya, Y., Arango-Aramburo, S., Larsen, E.R. (2016), How capacity mechanisms drive technology choice in power generation: The case of Colombia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 56, 563-571. Osorno-Cardona, Y.A., Mejía-Giraldo, D.A., Muñoz-Galeano, N. (2018), Metodología para estimación de energía firme a través de series hídricas sintéticas desacopladas. Información Tecnológica, 29(5), 35-46. Paez, A.F., Maldonado, Y.M., Castro, A.O. (2017), Future scenarios and trends of energy demand in Colombia using long-range energy alternative planning. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 178-190. Pupo-Roncallo, O., Campillo, J., Ingham, D., Hughes, K., Pourkashanian, M. (2019), Large scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the future Colombian energy system. Energy, 186, 115805. UPME Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética. (2018), Informe Mensual de Variables de Generación y del Mercado Eléctrico Colombiano-Agosto de 2018. Available from: http://www.siel.gov. co/portals/0/generacion/2018/Informe_de_variables_ago_2018.pdf. McRae, S., Wolak, F. (2019), Market Power and Incentive-Based Capacity Payment Mechanisms, Working Paper. Available from: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/tse/documents/conf/2019/ energy_climate2019/mcrae.pdf. XM S.A.E.S.P. (2019), Resultados Generales Subasta FEO 2022-2023. Available from: https://www.xm.com.co/resultado%20subasta%20 cargo%20por%20confiabilidad/resultadossubasta%20feo22-23.pdf |
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Moreno-Chuquen, Ricardof36efacf1d947d7410ab7d332d414753Cantillo Luna, Sergio Alejandro83f94fa4be72d6c8cf3b1410b45cfe2bCarrillo Rodríguez, Lilian Andreavirtual::1955-12022-05-16T19:54:37Z2022-05-16T19:54:37Z202121464553https://hdl.handle.net/10614/13877Universidad Autónoma de OccidenteRepositorio Educativo Digitalhttps://red.uao.edu.co/The recent auction of rm energy and the decisions on medium-term coverage give rise to risks in the supply of electricity in Colombia in the coming periods. Taking into account the possible risks that may arise, such as: non-compliance with FEO due to generation units (six [6] non-compliances during 2015-2016 term), the delay of generation projects with committed rm energy (Hidroituango case) and the availability of rm energy in the market, imply a systemic risk for the electric power supply in the medium term. Through the study of technical documents and resolutions, issued by the CREG, about the medium term energy balances in 2018, rm energy supply and demand balances were reconstructed, including the results of the last FEO auction carried out in the rst quarter of 2019, in order to carry out a risk analysis based on these same scenarios. It was observed that the amount of FEO auctioned exceeds the quantity of demand projected, meaning that the CREG assumed a conservative position by purchasing more energy than necessary (8650 GWh-year and 1027 GWh-year respectively), this is a situation that has occurred on more than one occasion7 páginasapplication/pdfengEconjournalsDerechos reservados - Econjournals, 2021https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium termArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARTinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85Producción de energía eléctricaElectric power productionReliability ChargeFirm EnergyFirm Energy ObligationRisk226222011Moreno, R., Cantillo, S. A., Carrillo Rodríguez, L.A. (2021). Risk analysis of firm energy coverage in colombia in the medium term. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. Vol.11 (2), pp. 220-226.International Journal of Energy Economics and PolicyArias-Gaviria, J., Carvajal-Quintero, S., Arango-Aramburo, S. (2019), Understanding dynamics and policy for renewable energy diffusion in Colombia. Renewable Energy, 139, 1111-1119.Asociación Colombiana de Generadores de Energía (ACOLGEN). (2019), Análisis de la Evolución del Cargo Por Confiabilidad. Available from: https://www.acolgen.org.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/acolgen_ analisis-de-la-evolucio%cc%81n-del-cargo-por-confiabilidad.pdf.Barrientos, J., Villada, F. (2020), Regionalized discount rate to evaluate renewable energy projects in Colombia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(2), 332-336.Bedoya, J.C., Rodas, E.A., García, D.F. (2016), Aspectos comerciales del esquema del cargo por confiabilidad en el mercado eléctrico Colombiano. Scientia et Technica, 21(1), 5.Buriticá-Arboleda, C., Ramírez-Escobar, C., Álvarez-Bel, C. (2019), La Seguridad de Abastecimiento Eléctrico en Mercados Liberalizados. Bogotá: Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas.Cabello, J., Morejón, M.B., Gutiérrez, A.S., García, A.P., Ulloa, M.C., Martínez, F.J.R., Rueda-Bayona, J.G. (2019), A look to the electricity generation from non-conventional renewable energy sources in Colombia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(1), 15-25.Castro, A.O., Robles-Algarín, C., Gallardo, R.P. (2019), Analysis of energy management and financial planning in the implementation of PV systems. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(4), 1-11.Cramton, P. (2015), Colombia Firm Energy Auction: Descending Clock or Sealed-Bid? Available from: https://www.creg.gov.co/images/ contenidos_estaticos/documentos/cramton-colombia-firm-energyauction-format.pdf.CREG. (2006a), Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. Por la Cual se Adopta la Metodología Para la Remuneración del Cargo Por Confiabilidad en el Mercado Mayorista de Energía, Resolución No. 071.CREG. (2006b), Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. Por la Cual se Adicionan, Aclaran y Modifican Algunas Disposiciones de la Resolución CREG-071 de 2006, Resolución No. 079.CREG Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. (2007), Manual del Programa Para Calcular la Energía Firme Para el Cargo por Confiabilidad de Plantas Hidráulicas.CREG Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. (2018a), Documento Técnico CREG-050-2018-Subasta del Cargo por Confiabilidad 2022-2023.CREG. (2018b), Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. Por la Cual se Fija la Oportunidad Para Llevar a Cabo la Subasta Para la Asignación de las Obligaciones de Energía Firme del Cargo por Confiabilidad Para el Período Comprendido Entre el 1 de Diciembre de 2022 y el 30 de Noviembre de 2023 y se Hacen Modificaciones a la Resolución CREG 071 de 2006, Resolución No. 064.CREG Comisión de Regulación de Energía y Gas. (2018c), Documento Técnico CREG-075-2018 Subasta de Expansión del Cargo por Confiabilidad 2022-2023.Forero, J.D., Hernandez, B., Orozco, W., Acuña, N., Wilches, M.J. (2019), Analysis of the use of renewable energies in Colombia and the potential application of thermoelectric devices for energy recovery. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(5), 125-134.Garcia-Rendón, J., Pérez-Libreros, A. (2019), The Electricity Spot Price and Inclusion of Non-Conventional Renewable Energies: Evidence for Colombia. Available from: https://www.ssrn.com/ abstract=3443910.Gonzalez-Castellanos, A., Pozo, D., Martinez, S., Lopez, L., Oliveros, I. (2018), Economic Impact of Wind Generation Penetration in the Colombian Electricity Market, arXiv Preprint No. 1810.11458.Harbord, D. (2016), CREG Expert Panel on Colombian Energy Market Reform. Available from: http://www.apolo.creg.gov.co/publicac.ns f/52188526a7290f8505256eee0072eba7/536e4d4ad166cd5a052580420070e8d0/$file/circular069-2016%20anexo2.pdf.Obregon, L., Valencia, G., Duarte, J. (2019), Study on the applicability of sustainable development policies in electricity generation systems in Colombia. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(6), 492-502.Olaya, Y., Arango-Aramburo, S., Larsen, E.R. (2016), How capacity mechanisms drive technology choice in power generation: The case of Colombia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 56, 563-571.Osorno-Cardona, Y.A., Mejía-Giraldo, D.A., Muñoz-Galeano, N. (2018), Metodología para estimación de energía firme a través de series hídricas sintéticas desacopladas. Información Tecnológica, 29(5), 35-46.Paez, A.F., Maldonado, Y.M., Castro, A.O. (2017), Future scenarios and trends of energy demand in Colombia using long-range energy alternative planning. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(5), 178-190.Pupo-Roncallo, O., Campillo, J., Ingham, D., Hughes, K., Pourkashanian, M. (2019), Large scale integration of renewable energy sources (RES) in the future Colombian energy system. Energy, 186, 115805.UPME Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética. (2018), Informe Mensual de Variables de Generación y del Mercado Eléctrico Colombiano-Agosto de 2018. Available from: http://www.siel.gov. co/portals/0/generacion/2018/Informe_de_variables_ago_2018.pdf.McRae, S., Wolak, F. (2019), Market Power and Incentive-Based Capacity Payment Mechanisms, Working Paper. Available from: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/tse/documents/conf/2019/ energy_climate2019/mcrae.pdf.XM S.A.E.S.P. (2019), Resultados Generales Subasta FEO 2022-2023. 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