Estimación del precio marginal del sistema eléctrico colombiano: una mirada desde la organización industrial

This paper has two important goals. The first one is to build a Cournot model that illustrate the strategic behavior of the leader energy generators of the Colombian energy market, using the spot price as a strategic variable to estimate the optimal quantities of the short term energy market. The second goal is to use the quantities estimated to build industrial organizational variables, and with them estimate the spot price using VAR models, that allow an impulse response analysis. A daily series is used for the estimation, which it goes from June of 2010 until November of the same year. The results showed that the storage capacity of the hydraulic companies give them a higher strategic behavior that thermal companies when the demand level is low, but the opposite happens when the demand level is high. It was found that a random shock over the residual demand of the oligopoly and the concentration ratio of the market structure, are reflected in a fluctuated behavior of the spot energy price, this effect can be read as a reaction of the companies to the new circumstances of the market condition.

• Autores: Duarte, Ona; García, John J.
• Fecha de publicación: 2014
• Institución: Universidad EAFIT
• Repositorio: Repositorio EAFIT
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/5024
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/10784/5024
• Palabra clave: Cournot model; Spot price; Energy market; Residual demand index; Herfindahl - Hirschman index; Vector autorregresive model VAR; Modelo de Cournot; Precio Marginal del Sistema; Mercado electrico; Índice de demanda residual; Índice de Herfindahl - Hirschman; Modelo de vectores autorregrasivos -VAR
• License: Acceso abierto