Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020

Forecasting has allowed the economic discipline to gain power and social relevance, although it has also exposed it to public discredit. In the uncertainty that has shaped COVID-19, the determinants of Colombian annual economic growth forecasts for the year 2020 were studied and it was found that th...

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Autores:
Lozada González, Camilo Andrés
Perdomo Munévar, John Mauro
Torres Pinzón, Andrés Felipe
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2021
Institución:
Universidad EAFIT
Repositorio:
Repositorio EAFIT
Idioma:
spa
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/33385
Acceso en línea:
https://hdl.handle.net/10784/33385
Palabra clave:
forecasting
economic growth
pandemic
pronósticos
crecimiento económico
pandemia
Rights
License
openAccess
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spelling Universidad Nacional de ColombiaLozada González, Camilo AndrésPerdomo Munévar, John MauroTorres Pinzón, Andrés Felipe20212024-02-19T17:15:09Z20212024-02-19T17:15:09Z1657-42062462-8107https://hdl.handle.net/10784/3338510.17230/ecos.2021.53.4Forecasting has allowed the economic discipline to gain power and social relevance, although it has also exposed it to public discredit. In the uncertainty that has shaped COVID-19, the determinants of Colombian annual economic growth forecasts for the year 2020 were studied and it was found that the variability of the forecasts, which range from +0,7 to -13,8%, does not depend on the evolution of the epidemiological situation, nor the institutional characteristics of those forecasting. The variability is mainly explained by the average of the most recent previous forecasts and by the central bank intervention rate.Pronosticar ha permitido que la disciplina económica gane poder y relevancia social, aunque también la ha expuesto al desprestigio público. En medio de la incertidumbre que ha configurado la COVID-19, estudiamos los determinantes de los pronósticos del crecimiento económico anual colombiano para el año 2020. Encontramos que la variabilidad de los pronósticos, que oscilan entre +0.7% y -13.8%, no depende de la evolución de la situación epidemiológica, ni de las características institucionales de quienes emiten los pronósticos. La variabilidad se explica principalmente por el promedio de los pronósticos anteriores más recientes y por la tasa de intervención del banco central.application/pdfspaUniversidad EAFIThttps://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/7112https://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/7112Copyright © 2021 Camilo Andrés Lozada González, John Mauro Perdomo Munévar, Andrés Felipe Torres PinzónopenAccessLibre accesohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Ecos de Economía, Vol. 25, Núm. 53, 2021Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020Oráculos en pandemia: pronósticos del crecimiento económico colombiano en 2020articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlepublishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1forecastingeconomic growthpandemicpronósticoscrecimiento económicopandemiaEcos de Economía25536787ORIGINALoraculos-en-pandemia.pdfTexto completoapplication/pdf1491228https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/5f0be384-5204-4a48-8056-12435d484b7a/download9564a466ccd0bfc3ce00ad752b73ebf3MD51THUMBNAILminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgCarátulaimage/jpeg251248https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/ad3d6489-61e1-4e6b-94e0-bdaf3f134ffb/download9b15d674b076c1793a0bc25cebb1bcefMD5210784/33385oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/333852024-02-20 18:24:44.482open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Oráculos en pandemia: pronósticos del crecimiento económico colombiano en 2020
title Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
spellingShingle Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
forecasting
economic growth
pandemic
pronósticos
crecimiento económico
pandemia
title_short Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
title_full Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
title_fullStr Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
title_full_unstemmed Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
title_sort Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Lozada González, Camilo Andrés
Perdomo Munévar, John Mauro
Torres Pinzón, Andrés Felipe
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Lozada González, Camilo Andrés
Perdomo Munévar, John Mauro
Torres Pinzón, Andrés Felipe
dc.contributor.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad Nacional de Colombia
dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv forecasting
economic growth
pandemic
topic forecasting
economic growth
pandemic
pronósticos
crecimiento económico
pandemia
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv pronósticos
crecimiento económico
pandemia
description Forecasting has allowed the economic discipline to gain power and social relevance, although it has also exposed it to public discredit. In the uncertainty that has shaped COVID-19, the determinants of Colombian annual economic growth forecasts for the year 2020 were studied and it was found that the variability of the forecasts, which range from +0,7 to -13,8%, does not depend on the evolution of the epidemiological situation, nor the institutional characteristics of those forecasting. The variability is mainly explained by the average of the most recent previous forecasts and by the central bank intervention rate.
publishDate 2021
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2024-02-19T17:15:09Z
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2024-02-19T17:15:09Z
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2021
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv article
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
publishedVersion
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dc.type.spa.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1657-4206
2462-8107
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://hdl.handle.net/10784/33385
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.17230/ecos.2021.53.4
identifier_str_mv 1657-4206
2462-8107
10.17230/ecos.2021.53.4
url https://hdl.handle.net/10784/33385
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language spa
dc.relation.isversionof.none.fl_str_mv https://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/7112
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Libre acceso
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dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad EAFIT
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv Ecos de Economía, Vol. 25, Núm. 53, 2021
institution Universidad EAFIT
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/5f0be384-5204-4a48-8056-12435d484b7a/download
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