Business Cycle and Risk Premium in the Colombian Stock Market

Through the Hodrick-Prescott methodology this paper presents a review about the relationship between the ex post risk premium of the stock market and business cycles observed in Colombia -- Through quarterly information from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2012, statistical eviden...

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Autores:
Gómez Sánchez, Andrés Mauricio
Astaiza Gómez, José Gabriel
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2013
Institución:
Universidad EAFIT
Repositorio:
Repositorio EAFIT
Idioma:
spa
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/7824
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/7824
Palabra clave:
D91
E21
E32
E44
G11
G12
G14
Filtro de Hodrick Prescott
Prima de riesgo
PRODUCTO INTERNO BRUTO
MERCADO DE CAPITALES
CICLOS ECONÓMICOS
Gross domestic product
Capital market
Business cycles
Rights
License
Acceso abierto
Description
Summary:Through the Hodrick-Prescott methodology this paper presents a review about the relationship between the ex post risk premium of the stock market and business cycles observed in Colombia -- Through quarterly information from the fourth quarter of 2001 to the third quarter of 2012, statistical evidence shows that the increase and decrease of ex post risk premium follow a countercyclical behavior in tune with existing research conducted about the United States and emerging economies, although with non-contemporary relationships with private consumption -- In addition, it is found that in the last decade the Colombian risk premium follows a process of Auto Regressive Moving Average Models (ARMA), showing that there is no variation in at least two consecutive quarters and whose behavior is generated in part by external events at the domestic economic activity level experienced in near past periods