¿Es la coyuntura económica un resultado de las expectativas empresariales? Análisis de la EOIC 1990-2008
Since the appearance of rational expectations theory, the analysis of the predictions of economic agents has become a very important issue in recent economic theories. In this paper Granger, Sims and Toda and Yamamoto “Non-Causality” tests are estimated in order to determine if firm’s expectations c...
- Autores:
-
Gómez Cardona, Sebastián
Jaramillo, Alberto
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2009
- Institución:
- Universidad EAFIT
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio EAFIT
- Idioma:
- spa
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/831
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/10784/831
- Palabra clave:
- Coyuntura económica
Expectativas empresariales
expectativas racionales
- Rights
- License
- Acceso abierto
| Summary: | Since the appearance of rational expectations theory, the analysis of the predictions of economic agents has become a very important issue in recent economic theories. In this paper Granger, Sims and Toda and Yamamoto “Non-Causality” tests are estimated in order to determine if firm’s expectations cause industrial conjuncture in Colombia. Private surveys and official data are used. Results are conclusive: expectations affect the future values of industrial variables such as production, employment and sells. Furthermore, these variables, along with past expectations and demand (measured through inventories and orders) are essential when firm expectations are created |
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