Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia

This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogen...

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Autores:
Quero-Virla, Leonardo
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2016
Institución:
Universidad EAFIT
Repositorio:
Repositorio EAFIT
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/11276
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/11276
Palabra clave:
C50
E20
E30
Q43
SVAR
impulse-response
oil market
Colombia
SVAR
impulsorespuesta
mercado petrolero
Colombia
Rights
License
Copyright (c) 2016 Leonardo Quero-Virla
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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Efectos macroeconómicos de las fluctuaciones de los precios del petróleo en Colombia
title Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
spellingShingle Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
C50
E20
E30
Q43
SVAR
impulse-response
oil market
Colombia
SVAR
impulsorespuesta
mercado petrolero
Colombia
title_short Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
title_full Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
title_fullStr Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
title_full_unstemmed Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
title_sort Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Quero-Virla, Leonardo
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Quero-Virla, Leonardo
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv C50
E20
E30
Q43
topic C50
E20
E30
Q43
SVAR
impulse-response
oil market
Colombia
SVAR
impulsorespuesta
mercado petrolero
Colombia
dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv SVAR
impulse-response
oil market
Colombia
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv SVAR
impulsorespuesta
mercado petrolero
Colombia
description This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative and reaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative.
publishDate 2016
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2016-12-02
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2017-04-03T13:37:21Z
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2017-04-03T13:37:21Z
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2016-12-02
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
article
publishedVersion
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dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 2462-8107
1657-4206
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10784/11276
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.17230/ecos.2016.43.2
identifier_str_mv 2462-8107
1657-4206
10.17230/ecos.2016.43.2
url http://hdl.handle.net/10784/11276
dc.language.iso.eng.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.isversionof.none.fl_str_mv http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4181
dc.relation.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4181
dc.rights.eng.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2016 Leonardo Quero-Virla
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dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv Acceso abierto
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2016 Leonardo Quero-Virla
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dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.eng.fl_str_mv Universidad EAFIT
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv instname:Universidad EAFIT
reponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT
dc.source.eng.fl_str_mv Ecos de Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics; Vol 20, No 43 (2016)
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv Ecos de Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics; Vol 20, No 43 (2016)
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spelling 2016-12-022017-04-03T13:37:21Z2016-12-022017-04-03T13:37:21Z2462-81071657-4206http://hdl.handle.net/10784/1127610.17230/ecos.2016.43.2This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative and reaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative.Esta investigación busca estudiar los efectos de las variaciones en el precio del petróleo en la economía Colombiana durante 2001:T1 a 2016:T2. Un modelo estructural de vectores auto-regresivos, similar al de Blanchard y Galí (2010), es estimado bajo un esquema de identificación recursiva, donde las variaciones inesperadas en el precio nominal del petróleo, son exógenas con respecto a los valores contemporáneos del resto de las variables. Con base a las funciones de impulso-respuesta, un aumento del 10% en el precio del petróleo genera las siguientes respuestas acumuladas ortogonalizadas: i) incremento contemporáneo de 0.4% en el crecimiento del producto, luego el efecto alcanza su máximo en el primer trimestre (incremento de 1.7%) y comienza a decaer luego de dos trimestres; ii) disminución contemporánea de 1.2% en el desempleo, seguidamente el efecto se mantiene ligeramente negativo y alcanza su máximo luego de diez trimestres (disminución de 5.1%); iii) disminución contemporánea de 0.9% en la inflación, seguida de un aumento de 0.2% en el tercer trimestre, y luego el efecto se mantiene ligeramente negativo.application/pdfengUniversidad EAFIThttp://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4181http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/4181Copyright (c) 2016 Leonardo Quero-VirlaAcceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2instname:Universidad EAFITreponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITEcos de Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics; Vol 20, No 43 (2016)Ecos de Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics; Vol 20, No 43 (2016)C50E20E30Q43SVARimpulse-responseoil marketColombiaSVARimpulsorespuestamercado petroleroColombiaMacroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in ColombiaEfectos macroeconómicos de las fluctuaciones de los precios del petróleo en Colombiainfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionarticlepublishedVersionArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Quero-Virla, LeonardoEcos de Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics20432338ecos.econ.ORIGINALdocument (65).pdfdocument (65).pdfTexto completo PDFapplication/pdf460648https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/1b348f77-d418-40f6-812c-afec164a29ec/downloaddb4e8d052cfeb64d3749e44085d9f02dMD51articulo.htmlarticulo.htmlTexto completo HTMLtext/html377https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/52be5dc1-cd2b-4838-9a5c-4e5d3a41e51e/download12e7937bd7463ef3ab262fa11eea06a8MD53THUMBNAILminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgimage/jpeg251248https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/75ba415a-9154-4dc7-8106-db3bc5e82969/download9b15d674b076c1793a0bc25cebb1bcefMD5210784/11276oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/112762020-03-18 11:59:11.395open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co

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