Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia

This research aims to study the effects of oil price changes on the Colombian economy during 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q2. A structural vector auto-regression model in the spirit of Blanchard and Galí (2010) is estimated under a recursive identification scheme, where unexpected oil price variations are exogenous relative to the contemporaneous values of the remaining variables. Drawing on impulse-response estimates, a 10% increase in the oil price generates the following accumulated orthogonalized responses: i) a contemporaneous 0.4% increase in GDP growth, later on the effect reaches its maximum in the first quarter (1.7% increase) and starts to decay after two quarters; ii) a contemporaneous 1.2% decrease in unemployment, then the effect remains slightly negative and reaches its maximum after ten quarters (5.1% decrease); iii) a contemporaneous 0.9% decrease in inflation, followed by an 0.2% increase by quarter three, and thereafter the effect remains slightly negative.

• Autores: Quero-Virla, Leonardo
• Fecha de publicación: 2016
• Institución: Universidad EAFIT
• Repositorio: Repositorio EAFIT
• Idioma: eng
• OAI Identifier: oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/11276
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/10784/11276
• Palabra clave: C50; E20; E30; Q43; SVAR; impulse-response; oil market; Colombia; SVAR; impulsorespuesta; mercado petrolero; Colombia
• License: Copyright (c) 2016 Leonardo Quero-Virla