Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia

One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeference...

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Autores:
Dávalos, Eleonora
Morales, Leonardo Fabio
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2019
Institución:
Universidad EAFIT
Repositorio:
Repositorio EAFIT
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/13694
Acceso en línea:
http://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/13694
Palabra clave:
Coca crops
Eradication
Spatial dependence
Spatial Durbin model
Spillover
Rights
License
Acceso abierto
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spelling Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees2019-07-30T15:30:58Z2019-07-302019-07-30T15:30:58Zhttp://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/13694K42R12R14One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to tests the hypothesis that forced eradication generates spillover effects. Using annual data for 1,116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia between 2001 and 2010, we estimate a spatial Durbin model (SDM) with municipal and time fixed effects. At municipal level, we find no evidence of the balloon effect. Our results suggest that aerial eradication activities in a municipality reduce the new area under coca cultivation by 8 percent inside that municipality and by 3 percent in neighboring municipalities. Therefore, and contrary to the balloon effect hypothesis aerial eradication generates negative spillover effects. Our results provide deeper insights for policy design. In our analysis, we are able to distinguish between the change in coca cultivation as a result of eradication activities inside and outside the municipality.engUniversidad EAFITEscuela de Economía y FinanzasIs there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in ColombiaworkingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperDocumento de trabajo de investigacióndrafthttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bccehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042Acceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Coca cropsEradicationSpatial dependenceSpatial Durbin modelSpilloveredavalosa@eafit.edu.coDávalos, EleonoraMorales, Leonardo FabioLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81748https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/d32f7152-be97-4521-94a3-294873623d0d/download8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD51ORIGINALWP-2019-08-Eleonora Davalos.pdfWP-2019-08-Eleonora Davalos.pdfapplication/pdf1203193https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/d984766e-d63f-4697-8989-ee5f133a9143/downloadcc18e19042d44a91ceb0d5046cebc183MD5210784/13694oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/136942024-03-05 14:06:23.0open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
title Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
spellingShingle Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
Coca crops
Eradication
Spatial dependence
Spatial Durbin model
Spillover
title_short Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
title_full Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
title_fullStr Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
title_full_unstemmed Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
title_sort Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Dávalos, Eleonora
Morales, Leonardo Fabio
dc.contributor.eafitauthor.none.fl_str_mv edavalosa@eafit.edu.co
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv Dávalos, Eleonora
Morales, Leonardo Fabio
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv Coca crops
Eradication
Spatial dependence
Spatial Durbin model
Spillover
topic Coca crops
Eradication
Spatial dependence
Spatial Durbin model
Spillover
description One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to tests the hypothesis that forced eradication generates spillover effects. Using annual data for 1,116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia between 2001 and 2010, we estimate a spatial Durbin model (SDM) with municipal and time fixed effects. At municipal level, we find no evidence of the balloon effect. Our results suggest that aerial eradication activities in a municipality reduce the new area under coca cultivation by 8 percent inside that municipality and by 3 percent in neighboring municipalities. Therefore, and contrary to the balloon effect hypothesis aerial eradication generates negative spillover effects. Our results provide deeper insights for policy design. In our analysis, we are able to distinguish between the change in coca cultivation as a result of eradication activities inside and outside the municipality.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-30T15:30:58Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-30
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2019-07-30T15:30:58Z
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv workingPaper
info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv Documento de trabajo de investigación
dc.type.hasVersion.eng.fl_str_mv draft
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language eng
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dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv Acceso abierto
rights_invalid_str_mv Acceso abierto
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.coverage.spatial.eng.fl_str_mv Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad EAFIT
dc.publisher.department.spa.fl_str_mv Escuela de Economía y Finanzas
institution Universidad EAFIT
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