Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia
One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeference...
- Autores:
-
Dávalos, Eleonora
Morales, Leonardo Fabio
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2019
- Institución:
- Universidad EAFIT
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio EAFIT
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/13694
- Acceso en línea:
- http://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/13694
- Palabra clave:
- Coca crops
Eradication
Spatial dependence
Spatial Durbin model
Spillover
- Rights
- License
- Acceso abierto
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Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees2019-07-30T15:30:58Z2019-07-302019-07-30T15:30:58Zhttp://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/13694K42R12R14One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to tests the hypothesis that forced eradication generates spillover effects. Using annual data for 1,116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia between 2001 and 2010, we estimate a spatial Durbin model (SDM) with municipal and time fixed effects. At municipal level, we find no evidence of the balloon effect. Our results suggest that aerial eradication activities in a municipality reduce the new area under coca cultivation by 8 percent inside that municipality and by 3 percent in neighboring municipalities. Therefore, and contrary to the balloon effect hypothesis aerial eradication generates negative spillover effects. Our results provide deeper insights for policy design. In our analysis, we are able to distinguish between the change in coca cultivation as a result of eradication activities inside and outside the municipality.engUniversidad EAFITEscuela de Economía y FinanzasIs there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in ColombiaworkingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperDocumento de trabajo de investigacióndrafthttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bccehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042Acceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Coca cropsEradicationSpatial dependenceSpatial Durbin modelSpilloveredavalosa@eafit.edu.coDávalos, EleonoraMorales, Leonardo FabioLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81748https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/d32f7152-be97-4521-94a3-294873623d0d/download8a4605be74aa9ea9d79846c1fba20a33MD51ORIGINALWP-2019-08-Eleonora Davalos.pdfWP-2019-08-Eleonora Davalos.pdfapplication/pdf1203193https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/d984766e-d63f-4697-8989-ee5f133a9143/downloadcc18e19042d44a91ceb0d5046cebc183MD5210784/13694oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/136942024-03-05 14:06:23.0open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co |
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia |
title |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia |
spellingShingle |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia Coca crops Eradication Spatial dependence Spatial Durbin model Spillover |
title_short |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia |
title_full |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia |
title_fullStr |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia |
title_sort |
Is there a balloon effect? Coca crops and forced eradication in Colombia |
dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Dávalos, Eleonora Morales, Leonardo Fabio |
dc.contributor.eafitauthor.none.fl_str_mv |
edavalosa@eafit.edu.co |
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Dávalos, Eleonora Morales, Leonardo Fabio |
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv |
Coca crops Eradication Spatial dependence Spatial Durbin model Spillover |
topic |
Coca crops Eradication Spatial dependence Spatial Durbin model Spillover |
description |
One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to tests the hypothesis that forced eradication generates spillover effects. Using annual data for 1,116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia between 2001 and 2010, we estimate a spatial Durbin model (SDM) with municipal and time fixed effects. At municipal level, we find no evidence of the balloon effect. Our results suggest that aerial eradication activities in a municipality reduce the new area under coca cultivation by 8 percent inside that municipality and by 3 percent in neighboring municipalities. Therefore, and contrary to the balloon effect hypothesis aerial eradication generates negative spillover effects. Our results provide deeper insights for policy design. In our analysis, we are able to distinguish between the change in coca cultivation as a result of eradication activities inside and outside the municipality. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-07-30T15:30:58Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-07-30 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-07-30T15:30:58Z |
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv |
workingPaper info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper |
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce |
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 |
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Documento de trabajo de investigación |
dc.type.hasVersion.eng.fl_str_mv |
draft |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/13694 |
dc.identifier.jel.none.fl_str_mv |
K42 R12 R14 |
url |
http://repository.eafit.edu.co/handle/10784/13694 |
identifier_str_mv |
K42 R12 R14 |
dc.language.iso.eng.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Acceso abierto |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Acceso abierto http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.coverage.spatial.eng.fl_str_mv |
Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Universidad EAFIT |
dc.publisher.department.spa.fl_str_mv |
Escuela de Economía y Finanzas |
institution |
Universidad EAFIT |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
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bitstream.checksumAlgorithm.fl_str_mv |
MD5 MD5 |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
repositorio@eafit.edu.co |
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1814110362728923136 |