Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal?
This paper explores the potential growth of Central America and the Dominican Republic after the 2008-2009 crisis to shed light on their 2020 pre-pandemic macroeconomic vulnerability and to ascertain that the observed path is deviating more than before from its potential. Using Hodrick-Prescott filt...
- Autores:
-
Maldonado, Leonardo
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2021
- Institución:
- Universidad EAFIT
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio EAFIT
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/31404
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/10784/31404
- Palabra clave:
- Bayesian model avaraging
output gap
potential growth
production function
regime switching
Promedio bayesiano de modelos
brecha del producto
crecimiento potencial
función de producción
cambio de régimen
- Rights
- License
- Copyright © 2021 Leonardo Maldonado
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Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees2021-10-112022-05-10T14:11:34Z2021-10-112022-05-10T14:11:34Z1657-4206http://hdl.handle.net/10784/31404This paper explores the potential growth of Central America and the Dominican Republic after the 2008-2009 crisis to shed light on their 2020 pre-pandemic macroeconomic vulnerability and to ascertain that the observed path is deviating more than before from its potential. Using Hodrick-Prescott filter by constrained minimization, production function, regime-switching models, and Bayesian model averaging, the main findings suggest a pre-pandemic regional slowdown. By country, there are mixed results. This scenario was not only driven by international factors but by particularities; on the one hand, statistical models show higher potential growth, and, in a less favorable context, the region would be closer to the structural performance; on the other hand, individual factors are hindering potential growth.El documento explora el crecimiento potencial de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana luego de la crisis 2008-2009 para dar idea de su vulnerabilidad macroeconómica previo a la pandemia de 2020 y para comprobar si la senda observada se desvía de su potencial más que antes. Usando el filtro Hodrick-Prescott por minimización restringida, los modelos de función de producción, de cambio de régimen, y el promedio bayesiano de modelos, los principales hallazgos sugieren una ralentización regional del crecimiento pre-pandemia. Los resultados son mixtos por país. Este escenario no solo está influenciado por factores internacionales sino por particularidades; por un lado, los modelos estadísticos muestran un crecimiento potencial mayor y, en un contexto menos favorable, la región estaría más cercana al desempeño estructural; por el otro lado, los factores individuales limitan el crecimiento potencial.application/pdfengUniversidad EAFIThttps://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/7115https://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/7115Copyright © 2021 Leonardo MaldonadoAcceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Ecos de Economía, Vol. 24, Núm. 51Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal?Crecimiento potencial en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana: ¿Hubo una nueva normalidad pre-pandemia?info:eu-repo/semantics/articlearticleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpublishedVersionArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Bayesian model avaragingoutput gappotential growthproduction functionregime switchingPromedio bayesiano de modelosbrecha del productocrecimiento potencialfunción de produccióncambio de régimenMaldonado, LeonardoInter-American Development BankEcos de Economía24517299ORIGINALPotential growth in Central America.pdfPotential growth in Central America.pdfTexto completo PDFapplication/pdf1248509https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/7a99b1c3-a390-4127-b8a2-0a7ab43885e1/download589a5a375382d8c2adf2401477ad290dMD51Potential growth in Central America.htmlPotential growth in Central America.htmlTexto completo HTMLtext/html292https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/1f043a80-08f4-4f06-a837-47951554dcf5/download38951d6fe19170816af9cbcb360307aaMD52THUMBNAILminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgimage/jpeg251248https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/5cdc6ddd-2fb0-4a67-baac-c8ae6cb51915/download9b15d674b076c1793a0bc25cebb1bcefMD5310784/31404oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/314042022-05-16 03:42:18.515open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co |
| dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? |
| dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Crecimiento potencial en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana: ¿Hubo una nueva normalidad pre-pandemia? |
| title |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? |
| spellingShingle |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? Bayesian model avaraging output gap potential growth production function regime switching Promedio bayesiano de modelos brecha del producto crecimiento potencial función de producción cambio de régimen |
| title_short |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? |
| title_full |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? |
| title_fullStr |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? |
| title_sort |
Potential growth in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Was there a pre-pandemic new normal? |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Maldonado, Leonardo |
| dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv |
Maldonado, Leonardo |
| dc.contributor.affiliation.spa.fl_str_mv |
Inter-American Development Bank |
| dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv |
Bayesian model avaraging output gap potential growth production function regime switching |
| topic |
Bayesian model avaraging output gap potential growth production function regime switching Promedio bayesiano de modelos brecha del producto crecimiento potencial función de producción cambio de régimen |
| dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv |
Promedio bayesiano de modelos brecha del producto crecimiento potencial función de producción cambio de régimen |
| description |
This paper explores the potential growth of Central America and the Dominican Republic after the 2008-2009 crisis to shed light on their 2020 pre-pandemic macroeconomic vulnerability and to ascertain that the observed path is deviating more than before from its potential. Using Hodrick-Prescott filter by constrained minimization, production function, regime-switching models, and Bayesian model averaging, the main findings suggest a pre-pandemic regional slowdown. By country, there are mixed results. This scenario was not only driven by international factors but by particularities; on the one hand, statistical models show higher potential growth, and, in a less favorable context, the region would be closer to the structural performance; on the other hand, individual factors are hindering potential growth. |
| publishDate |
2021 |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-11 |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-05-10T14:11:34Z |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-05-10T14:11:34Z |
| dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-11 |
| dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv |
info:eu-repo/semantics/article article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion publishedVersion |
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http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
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Artículo |
| status_str |
publishedVersion |
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1657-4206 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10784/31404 |
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1657-4206 |
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http://hdl.handle.net/10784/31404 |
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eng |
| language |
eng |
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https://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/7115 |
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https://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/7115 |
| dc.rights.eng.fl_str_mv |
Copyright © 2021 Leonardo Maldonado |
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http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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Acceso abierto |
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Copyright © 2021 Leonardo Maldonado Acceso abierto http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
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application/pdf |
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Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees |
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Universidad EAFIT |
| dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv |
Ecos de Economía, Vol. 24, Núm. 51 |
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Universidad EAFIT |
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