Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement
This paper reconsiders the e_ects of volatile growth rates on growth itself. I show that the underlying endogeneity of government size can hide the net growth e_ects from volatility. There exists a positive direct and a negative indirect channel, with the latter operating through the size of the pub...
- Autores:
-
Jetter, Michael
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2013
- Institución:
- Universidad EAFIT
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio EAFIT
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/995
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/10784/995
- Palabra clave:
- Volatility
Business Cycles
Economic Growth
- Rights
- License
- Acceso abierto
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Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees2013-07-11T21:28:03Z2013-06-262013-07-11T21:28:03Zhttp://hdl.handle.net/10784/995E32H11O40This paper reconsiders the e_ects of volatile growth rates on growth itself. I show that the underlying endogeneity of government size can hide the net growth e_ects from volatility. There exists a positive direct and a negative indirect channel, with the latter operating through the size of the public sector. Risk-averse citizens respond to volatility either with precautionary savings (direct e_ect) or by demanding a stronger public safety net, which in turn lowers growth (indirect e_ect). However, the indirect channel is only available if the political regime allows citizens to determine their desired level of public services. I test this theory on a balanced panel of 95 countries from 1960 { 2010. The paper reveals the latent endogeneity of government size in a single growth equation framework and o_ers a simultaneous estimation method as an alternative. Results support the existence of both effects. The direct channel is stronger in autocratic societies, but as a country turns to democracy the indirect channel dominates. Volatility has a positive net e_ect on growth in autocratic nations, but a negative net effect in democratic societies. This finding explains why previous growth analyses of volatility at times reached contradicting conclusions.engUniversidad EAFITEscuela de Economía y FinanzasVolatility and Growth: An Explanation for the DisagreementworkingPaperinfo:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaperDocumento de trabajo de investigacióndrafthttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bccehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042Acceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2VolatilityBusiness CyclesEconomic GrowthJetter, Michaelmjetter7@gmail.commjetter@eafit.edu.coORIGINAL2013_13_Michael_Jetter.pdf2013_13_Michael_Jetter.pdfapplication/pdf653972https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/2aa12c39-6869-468c-81df-135c33dbb789/download3675a5ca5e9ffdce3455f3f2a195a6b9MD51LICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-8968https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/65ee3d0f-617d-45b8-ac58-a4d5daabf9a4/download4cc960a42e07fca3808fbd6b90ab2a1fMD5210784/995oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/9952024-03-05 14:05:58.692open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.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 |
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement |
title |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement |
spellingShingle |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement Volatility Business Cycles Economic Growth |
title_short |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement |
title_full |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement |
title_fullStr |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement |
title_full_unstemmed |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement |
title_sort |
Volatility and Growth: An Explanation for the Disagreement |
dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Jetter, Michael |
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Jetter, Michael |
dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv |
Volatility Business Cycles Economic Growth |
topic |
Volatility Business Cycles Economic Growth |
description |
This paper reconsiders the e_ects of volatile growth rates on growth itself. I show that the underlying endogeneity of government size can hide the net growth e_ects from volatility. There exists a positive direct and a negative indirect channel, with the latter operating through the size of the public sector. Risk-averse citizens respond to volatility either with precautionary savings (direct e_ect) or by demanding a stronger public safety net, which in turn lowers growth (indirect e_ect). However, the indirect channel is only available if the political regime allows citizens to determine their desired level of public services. I test this theory on a balanced panel of 95 countries from 1960 { 2010. The paper reveals the latent endogeneity of government size in a single growth equation framework and o_ers a simultaneous estimation method as an alternative. Results support the existence of both effects. The direct channel is stronger in autocratic societies, but as a country turns to democracy the indirect channel dominates. Volatility has a positive net e_ect on growth in autocratic nations, but a negative net effect in democratic societies. This finding explains why previous growth analyses of volatility at times reached contradicting conclusions. |
publishDate |
2013 |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-07-11T21:28:03Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-06-26 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2013-07-11T21:28:03Z |
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv |
workingPaper info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper |
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bcce |
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_8042 |
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Documento de trabajo de investigación |
dc.type.hasVersion.eng.fl_str_mv |
draft |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/995 |
dc.identifier.jel.none.fl_str_mv |
E32 H11 O40 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/995 |
identifier_str_mv |
E32 H11 O40 |
dc.language.iso.eng.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Acceso abierto |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Acceso abierto http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.coverage.spatial.eng.fl_str_mv |
Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Universidad EAFIT |
dc.publisher.department.spa.fl_str_mv |
Escuela de Economía y Finanzas |
institution |
Universidad EAFIT |
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv |
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