The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4

Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemploy...

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Autores:
Garcìa-Ramos, Manuel
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2019
Institución:
Universidad EAFIT
Repositorio:
Repositorio EAFIT
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/15346
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/15346
Palabra clave:
C32
C52
E24
E32
O47
Unemployment
Hysteresis
Output gap
Potential output
State-space model
Timevarying coefficients model
Okun’s law
Desempleo
Histéresis
Brecha del producto
Producto potencial
Modelo estado-espacio
Ley de Okun
Rights
License
Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth Foster
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repository_id_str
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv El impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo: evidencia para México, 1987q1-2018q4
title The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
spellingShingle The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
C32
C52
E24
E32
O47
Unemployment
Hysteresis
Output gap
Potential output
State-space model
Timevarying coefficients model
Okun’s law
Desempleo
Histéresis
Brecha del producto
Producto potencial
Modelo estado-espacio
Ley de Okun
title_short The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
title_full The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
title_fullStr The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
title_full_unstemmed The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
title_sort The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Garcìa-Ramos, Manuel
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Garcìa-Ramos, Manuel
dc.contributor.affiliation.spa.fl_str_mv Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas (UNAM)
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv C32
C52
E24
E32
O47
topic C32
C52
E24
E32
O47
Unemployment
Hysteresis
Output gap
Potential output
State-space model
Timevarying coefficients model
Okun’s law
Desempleo
Histéresis
Brecha del producto
Producto potencial
Modelo estado-espacio
Ley de Okun
dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv Unemployment
Hysteresis
Output gap
Potential output
State-space model
Timevarying coefficients model
Okun’s law
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv Desempleo
Histéresis
Brecha del producto
Producto potencial
Modelo estado-espacio
Ley de Okun
description Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemployment rate. Our principal conclusions are: 1) The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate is equal to 3.06; 2) the unemployment rate does not exhibit hysteresis; 3) when GDP is lower than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is -0.43 percent points; and 4) when GDP is higher than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is close to zero. It implies that the reaction of the unemployment rate to output gap is different when the output gap is increasing from that when the output gap is decreasing; i.e., the output gap does not have the same effect on the unemployment rate over time.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2019-12-12T19:33:53Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2019-11-18
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2019-12-12T19:33:53Z
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2019-11-18
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv article
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
publishedVersion
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 2462-8107
1657-4206
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10784/15346
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.17230/ecos.2019.48.1
identifier_str_mv 2462-8107
1657-4206
10.17230/ecos.2019.48.1
url http://hdl.handle.net/10784/15346
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartof.none.fl_str_mv Ecos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019)
dc.relation.isversionof.none.fl_str_mv http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103
dc.relation.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103
dc.rights.eng.fl_str_mv Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth Foster
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv Acceso abierto
rights_invalid_str_mv Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth Foster
Acceso abierto
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.coverage.spatial.eng.fl_str_mv Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad EAFIT
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv instname:Universidad EAFIT
reponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv Ecos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019)
instname_str Universidad EAFIT
institution Universidad EAFIT
reponame_str Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT
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spelling Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees2019-11-182019-12-12T19:33:53Z2019-11-182019-12-12T19:33:53Z2462-81071657-4206http://hdl.handle.net/10784/1534610.17230/ecos.2019.48.1Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemployment rate. Our principal conclusions are: 1) The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate is equal to 3.06; 2) the unemployment rate does not exhibit hysteresis; 3) when GDP is lower than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is -0.43 percent points; and 4) when GDP is higher than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is close to zero. It implies that the reaction of the unemployment rate to output gap is different when the output gap is increasing from that when the output gap is decreasing; i.e., the output gap does not have the same effect on the unemployment rate over time.Usando datos trimestrales para México de 1988Q1 a 2018Q4, medimos el impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo con base en un modelo estado-espacio de coeficientes que varían en el tiempo. Desde el punto de vista de la modelación econométrica, este modelo permite interacciones asimétricas entre la brecha del producto y la tasa de desempleo. Nuestras principales conclusiones son: 1) la tasa de desempleo de largo plazo es igual a 3.06; 2) la tasa de desempleo no exhibe histéresis; 3) cuando el PIB es menor que el producto potencial, el impacto de su crecimiento sobre la tasa de desempleo es de -0.43 puntos porcentuales; y 4) cuando el PIB es mayor que el producto potencial, el impacto de su crecimiento sobre la tasa de desempleo es cercano a cero. Esto implica que la reacción de la tasa de desempleo a la brecha del producto es diferente cuando la brecha del producto crece que cuando disminuye; es decir, la brecha del producto no tiene el mismo efecto sobre la tasa de desempleo a través del tiempo.application/pdfengUniversidad EAFITEcos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019)http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth FosterAcceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2instname:Universidad EAFITreponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITEcos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019)C32C52E24E32O47UnemploymentHysteresisOutput gapPotential outputState-space modelTimevarying coefficients modelOkun’s lawDesempleoHistéresisBrecha del productoProducto potencialModelo estado-espacioLey de OkunThe impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4El impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo: evidencia para México, 1987q1-2018q4articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlepublishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Garcìa-Ramos, ManuelInstituto de Investigaciones Económicas (UNAM)Ecos de Economia: A Latin American journal of applied economics2348415Ecos de EconomíaTHUMBNAILminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgimage/jpeg251248https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/da0d0de1-f517-421d-9634-dc0e48e8fbc1/download9b15d674b076c1793a0bc25cebb1bcefMD51ORIGINAL1.pdf1.pdfTexto completo PDFapplication/pdf569068https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/c6ae7d93-6bcf-470b-9337-abe1bd2dd5a9/download9920a0469f8c710fdf850000568da935MD52articulo.htmlarticulo.htmlTexto completo HTMLtext/html377https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/8001adce-d60c-482e-b7cc-975fafd68fcc/downloada6e741d4d86a7c728fc5219cc87641caMD5310784/15346oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/153462020-03-18 11:35:46.891open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co