The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4
Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemploy...
- Autores:
-
Garcìa-Ramos, Manuel
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2019
- Institución:
- Universidad EAFIT
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio EAFIT
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/15346
- Acceso en línea:
- http://hdl.handle.net/10784/15346
- Palabra clave:
- C32
C52
E24
E32
O47
Unemployment
Hysteresis
Output gap
Potential output
State-space model
Timevarying coefficients model
Okun’s law
Desempleo
Histéresis
Brecha del producto
Producto potencial
Modelo estado-espacio
Ley de Okun
- Rights
- License
- Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth Foster
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|
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 |
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
El impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo: evidencia para México, 1987q1-2018q4 |
title |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 |
spellingShingle |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 C32 C52 E24 E32 O47 Unemployment Hysteresis Output gap Potential output State-space model Timevarying coefficients model Okun’s law Desempleo Histéresis Brecha del producto Producto potencial Modelo estado-espacio Ley de Okun |
title_short |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 |
title_full |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 |
title_fullStr |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 |
title_full_unstemmed |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 |
title_sort |
The impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4 |
dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Garcìa-Ramos, Manuel |
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv |
Garcìa-Ramos, Manuel |
dc.contributor.affiliation.spa.fl_str_mv |
Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas (UNAM) |
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv |
C32 C52 E24 E32 O47 |
topic |
C32 C52 E24 E32 O47 Unemployment Hysteresis Output gap Potential output State-space model Timevarying coefficients model Okun’s law Desempleo Histéresis Brecha del producto Producto potencial Modelo estado-espacio Ley de Okun |
dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv |
Unemployment Hysteresis Output gap Potential output State-space model Timevarying coefficients model Okun’s law |
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv |
Desempleo Histéresis Brecha del producto Producto potencial Modelo estado-espacio Ley de Okun |
description |
Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemployment rate. Our principal conclusions are: 1) The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate is equal to 3.06; 2) the unemployment rate does not exhibit hysteresis; 3) when GDP is lower than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is -0.43 percent points; and 4) when GDP is higher than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is close to zero. It implies that the reaction of the unemployment rate to output gap is different when the output gap is increasing from that when the output gap is decreasing; i.e., the output gap does not have the same effect on the unemployment rate over time. |
publishDate |
2019 |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-12-12T19:33:53Z |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-11-18 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-12-12T19:33:53Z |
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-11-18 |
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv |
article info:eu-repo/semantics/article publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Artículo |
status_str |
publishedVersion |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv |
2462-8107 1657-4206 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/15346 |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv |
10.17230/ecos.2019.48.1 |
identifier_str_mv |
2462-8107 1657-4206 10.17230/ecos.2019.48.1 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/15346 |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.ispartof.none.fl_str_mv |
Ecos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019) |
dc.relation.isversionof.none.fl_str_mv |
http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103 |
dc.relation.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103 |
dc.rights.eng.fl_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth Foster |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv |
Acceso abierto |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth Foster Acceso abierto http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.format.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.coverage.spatial.eng.fl_str_mv |
Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Universidad EAFIT |
dc.source.none.fl_str_mv |
instname:Universidad EAFIT reponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT |
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv |
Ecos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019) |
instname_str |
Universidad EAFIT |
institution |
Universidad EAFIT |
reponame_str |
Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT |
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Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT |
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spelling |
Medellín de: Lat: 06 15 00 N degrees minutes Lat: 6.2500 decimal degrees Long: 075 36 00 W degrees minutes Long: -75.6000 decimal degrees2019-11-182019-12-12T19:33:53Z2019-11-182019-12-12T19:33:53Z2462-81071657-4206http://hdl.handle.net/10784/1534610.17230/ecos.2019.48.1Using quarterly data for Mexico from 1987Q1 to 2018Q4, we measure the impact of output gap on the unemployment rate based on a State-Space model with time-varying coefficients. From an econometric modeling point of view, this model allows asymmetrical interactions between the output gap and unemployment rate. Our principal conclusions are: 1) The long-term equilibrium unemployment rate is equal to 3.06; 2) the unemployment rate does not exhibit hysteresis; 3) when GDP is lower than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is -0.43 percent points; and 4) when GDP is higher than potential output, the impact of its growth on the unemployment rate is close to zero. It implies that the reaction of the unemployment rate to output gap is different when the output gap is increasing from that when the output gap is decreasing; i.e., the output gap does not have the same effect on the unemployment rate over time.Usando datos trimestrales para México de 1988Q1 a 2018Q4, medimos el impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo con base en un modelo estado-espacio de coeficientes que varían en el tiempo. Desde el punto de vista de la modelación econométrica, este modelo permite interacciones asimétricas entre la brecha del producto y la tasa de desempleo. Nuestras principales conclusiones son: 1) la tasa de desempleo de largo plazo es igual a 3.06; 2) la tasa de desempleo no exhibe histéresis; 3) cuando el PIB es menor que el producto potencial, el impacto de su crecimiento sobre la tasa de desempleo es de -0.43 puntos porcentuales; y 4) cuando el PIB es mayor que el producto potencial, el impacto de su crecimiento sobre la tasa de desempleo es cercano a cero. Esto implica que la reacción de la tasa de desempleo a la brecha del producto es diferente cuando la brecha del producto crece que cuando disminuye; es decir, la brecha del producto no tiene el mismo efecto sobre la tasa de desempleo a través del tiempo.application/pdfengUniversidad EAFITEcos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019)http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103http://publicaciones.eafit.edu.co/index.php/ecos-economia/article/view/6103Copyright (c) 2018 Manuel I. Jiménez, Philip Abbott, Kenneth FosterAcceso abiertohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2instname:Universidad EAFITreponame:Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITEcos de Economía, Vol 23, No 48 (2019)C32C52E24E32O47UnemploymentHysteresisOutput gapPotential outputState-space modelTimevarying coefficients modelOkun’s lawDesempleoHistéresisBrecha del productoProducto potencialModelo estado-espacioLey de OkunThe impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate: evidence from Mexico, 1987q1-2018q4El impacto de la brecha del producto sobre la tasa de desempleo: evidencia para México, 1987q1-2018q4articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlepublishedVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Garcìa-Ramos, ManuelInstituto de Investigaciones Económicas (UNAM)Ecos de Economia: A Latin American journal of applied economics2348415Ecos de EconomíaTHUMBNAILminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgminaitura-ecos_Mesa de trabajo 1.jpgimage/jpeg251248https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/da0d0de1-f517-421d-9634-dc0e48e8fbc1/download9b15d674b076c1793a0bc25cebb1bcefMD51ORIGINAL1.pdf1.pdfTexto completo PDFapplication/pdf569068https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/c6ae7d93-6bcf-470b-9337-abe1bd2dd5a9/download9920a0469f8c710fdf850000568da935MD52articulo.htmlarticulo.htmlTexto completo HTMLtext/html377https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/8001adce-d60c-482e-b7cc-975fafd68fcc/downloada6e741d4d86a7c728fc5219cc87641caMD5310784/15346oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/153462020-03-18 11:35:46.891open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co |