Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows

Aid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor–recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ‘fl...

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Autores:
Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier
Neumayer, Eric
Nunnenkamp, Peter
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2015
Institución:
Universidad EAFIT
Repositorio:
Repositorio EAFIT
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/7506
Acceso en línea:
http://hdl.handle.net/10784/7506
Palabra clave:
aid predictability
donor fragmentation
forward spending plans
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License
restrictedAccess
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spelling 20152015-11-06T16:24:55Z20152015-11-06T16:24:55Z1099-1328http://hdl.handle.net/10784/750610.1002/jid.3073Aid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor–recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ‘fly their flag’ around the world, increase aid unpredictability. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of aid unpredictability suggests that aid becomes less predictable with more fragmented donor–recipient relationships. Specifically, the effect of fragmentation on overshooting previous spending plans is statistically significant and substantively important. In contrast, fragmented donor–recipient relationships have no effect on the shortfall of actual aid compared with donors' spending plans.engJohn Wiley & Sons LtdJournal of International Development. Vol.27(4), 2015, pp.440-463http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3073/abstracthttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3073/abstractrestrictedAccessCopyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Acceso restringidohttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ecJournal of International Development. Vol.27(4), 2015, pp.440-463Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flowsarticleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articleinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionArtículoObra publicadapublishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1aid predictabilitydonor fragmentationforward spending plansEscuela de Economía y FinanzasEconomíaCanavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo JavierNeumayer, EricNunnenkamp, PeterUniversidad EAFIT, Medellín, ColombiaLondon School of Economics and Political Science, London, UKKiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, GermanyEstudios en Economía y EmpresaJournal of International Development274440463ORIGINAL789083655.pdf789083655.pdfapplication/pdf541246https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/243441c6-6a3c-4aaa-a14f-fbcf9b701318/download26ee51f0f45be8c1e381d4b437c83f29MD5110784/7506oai:repository.eafit.edu.co:10784/75062023-03-15 10:18:54.574open.accesshttps://repository.eafit.edu.coRepositorio Institucional Universidad EAFITrepositorio@eafit.edu.co
dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
title Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
spellingShingle Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
aid predictability
donor fragmentation
forward spending plans
title_short Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
title_full Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
title_fullStr Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
title_full_unstemmed Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
title_sort Why Aid is Unpredictable: An Empirical Analysis of the Gap Between Actual and Planned Aid Flows
dc.creator.fl_str_mv Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier
Neumayer, Eric
Nunnenkamp, Peter
dc.contributor.department.spa.fl_str_mv Escuela de Economía y Finanzas
Economía
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo Javier
Neumayer, Eric
Nunnenkamp, Peter
dc.contributor.affiliation.spa.fl_str_mv Universidad EAFIT, Medellín, Colombia
London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK
Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel, Germany
dc.contributor.program.spa.fl_str_mv Estudios en Economía y Empresa
dc.subject.keyword.eng.fl_str_mv aid predictability
donor fragmentation
forward spending plans
topic aid predictability
donor fragmentation
forward spending plans
description Aid flows continue to be volatile and unpredictable, even though it is widely accepted that this erodes the effectiveness of foreign aid. We argue that fragmented donor–recipient relationships, notably the large number of minor aid relations that tend to be associated with donors' desire to ‘fly their flag’ around the world, increase aid unpredictability. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of aid unpredictability suggests that aid becomes less predictable with more fragmented donor–recipient relationships. Specifically, the effect of fragmentation on overshooting previous spending plans is statistically significant and substantively important. In contrast, fragmented donor–recipient relationships have no effect on the shortfall of actual aid compared with donors' spending plans.
publishDate 2015
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2015-11-06T16:24:55Z
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv 2015
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2015-11-06T16:24:55Z
dc.date.none.fl_str_mv 2015
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv article
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.type.hasVersion.spa.fl_str_mv Obra publicada
dc.type.hasVersion.eng.fl_str_mv publishedVersion
status_str publishedVersion
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 1099-1328
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://hdl.handle.net/10784/7506
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv 10.1002/jid.3073
identifier_str_mv 1099-1328
10.1002/jid.3073
url http://hdl.handle.net/10784/7506
dc.language.iso.eng.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.ispartof.spa.fl_str_mv Journal of International Development. Vol.27(4), 2015, pp.440-463
dc.relation.isversionof.none.fl_str_mv http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3073/abstract
dc.relation.uri.none.fl_str_mv http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.3073/abstract
dc.rights.eng.fl_str_mv restrictedAccess
dc.rights.spa.fl_str_mv Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec
dc.rights.local.spa.fl_str_mv Acceso restringido
rights_invalid_str_mv restrictedAccess
Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Acceso restringido
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec
dc.publisher.eng.fl_str_mv John Wiley & Sons Ltd
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv Journal of International Development. Vol.27(4), 2015, pp.440-463
institution Universidad EAFIT
bitstream.url.fl_str_mv https://repository.eafit.edu.co/bitstreams/243441c6-6a3c-4aaa-a14f-fbcf9b701318/download
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repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio Institucional Universidad EAFIT
repository.mail.fl_str_mv repositorio@eafit.edu.co
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