An early warning method for agricultural products price spike based on artificial neural networks prediction

In general, the agricultural producing sector is affected by the diversity in supply, mostly from small companies, in addition to the rigidity of the demand, the territorial dispersion, the seasonality or the generation of employment related to the rural environment. These characteristics differenti...

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Autores:
Silva, Jesús
Gaitán-Angulo, Mercedes
Romero Borré, Jenny
Lozano Ayarza, Liliana Patricia
Pineda Lezama, Omar Bonerge
Martínez Galán, Zuleima del Carmen
Navarro Beltran, Jorge
Tipo de recurso:
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_816b
Fecha de publicación:
2020
Institución:
Corporación Universidad de la Costa
Repositorio:
REDICUC - Repositorio CUC
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repositorio.cuc.edu.co:11323/6471
Acceso en línea:
https://hdl.handle.net/11323/6471
https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/
Palabra clave:
Predictive model
Multilayer perceptron
Multiple input multiple output
Forecast
Support vector machines
Cyclic variation
Rights
openAccess
License
CC0 1.0 Universal
Description
Summary:In general, the agricultural producing sector is affected by the diversity in supply, mostly from small companies, in addition to the rigidity of the demand, the territorial dispersion, the seasonality or the generation of employment related to the rural environment. These characteristics differentiate the agricultural sector from other economic sectors. On the other hand, the volatility of prices payed by producers, the high cost of raw materials, and the instability of both domestic and international markets are factors which have eroded the competitiveness and profitability of the agricultural sector. Because of the advance in technology, applications have been developed based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) which have helped the development of sales forecast on consumer products, improving the accuracy of traditional forecasting systems. This research uses the RNA to develop an early warning system for facing the increase in agricultural products, considering macro and micro economic variables and factors related to the seasons of the year.