Modelación logit binaria de la severidad de los accidentes de tráfico en las vías rurales del Atlántico, Colombia.

Traffic accidents bring about thousands of deaths worldwide and even more injured every year. Therefore, special attention has been given to accident analysis and prevention. In such framework, this study aims to identify the significant factors affecting accidents severity in rural roads from Atlantico department in Colombia. Three years of information (2014 to 2016) registered related to casualties due to traffic accidents were considered for this study. Kernel density analysis was used to create heat maps by means of GIS to identify critical zones. Once identified, information linked to roads and roadside characteristics was collected. Variables like barriers, the presence of animals, lane width, artificial lighting, the presence of fixed objects and other variables were used for statistical modeling. Binary logistic regression models were applied to explain severity (injuries and deaths), crashes with no injured people were not considered. The results indicate that presence of trees, utility poles, guardrail barriers, presence of cyclists, pedestrian, motorcyclists and older people (>60 years old) when involved in a traffic accident increase the odds of suffering fatal injuries, meantime accidents occurred at night, lack of artificial lighting, traffic light controlled intersections and the number of horizontal curves increase de odds of suffering less severe injuries. The results of this study will be used to suggest low-cost countermeasures in terms of reducing injury severity, which are planned to be implemented by the Instituto de Tránsito del Atlántico (ITA).

• Autores: Bolívar Redondo, Jorge
• Tipo de recurso: Trabajo de grado de pregrado
• Fecha de publicación: 2018
• Institución: Corporación Universidad de la Costa
• Repositorio: REDICUC - Repositorio CUC
• Idioma: spa
• OAI Identifier: oai:repositorio.cuc.edu.co:11323/282
• Acceso en línea: http://hdl.handle.net/11323/282; https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/
• Palabra clave: Severidad de las lesiones; Lesiones de tráfico; Regresión Logística binaria
• Rights: openAccess
• License: Atribución – No comercial – Compartir igual