Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with tran...
- Autores:
-
Murray L., Christopher J
Callender H, Charlton S K
Kulikoff, Xie Rachel
Srinivasan, Vinay
Abate, Degu
Abate, Kalkidan Hassen
Abay, Solomon M
Abbasi, Nooshin
Abbastabar, Hedayat
Alvis-Guzman, Nelson
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of journal
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2017
- Institución:
- Corporación Universidad de la Costa
- Repositorio:
- REDICUC - Repositorio CUC
- Idioma:
- eng
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- oai:repositorio.cuc.edu.co:11323/4773
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/11323/4773
https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/
- Palabra clave:
- Demográfica y epidemiológica
Indicadores internacionales de salud y desarrollo
Población y la fertilidad
Demographic and epidemiological
International health and development indicators
Population and fertility
- Rights
- openAccess
- License
- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/
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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 |
dc.title.translated.spa.fl_str_mv |
Población y fecundidad por edad y sexo para 195 países y territorios, 1950-2017: un análisis sistemático para el Estudio de la carga mundial de la enfermedad 2017 |
title |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 |
spellingShingle |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 Demográfica y epidemiológica Indicadores internacionales de salud y desarrollo Población y la fertilidad Demographic and epidemiological International health and development indicators Population and fertility |
title_short |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 |
title_full |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 |
title_fullStr |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 |
title_sort |
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 |
dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Murray L., Christopher J Callender H, Charlton S K Kulikoff, Xie Rachel Srinivasan, Vinay Abate, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abay, Solomon M Abbasi, Nooshin Abbastabar, Hedayat Alvis-Guzman, Nelson |
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv |
Murray L., Christopher J Callender H, Charlton S K Kulikoff, Xie Rachel Srinivasan, Vinay Abate, Degu Abate, Kalkidan Hassen Abay, Solomon M Abbasi, Nooshin Abbastabar, Hedayat Alvis-Guzman, Nelson |
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv |
Demográfica y epidemiológica Indicadores internacionales de salud y desarrollo Población y la fertilidad Demographic and epidemiological International health and development indicators Population and fertility |
topic |
Demográfica y epidemiológica Indicadores internacionales de salud y desarrollo Población y la fertilidad Demographic and epidemiological International health and development indicators Population and fertility |
description |
Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. |
publishDate |
2017 |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2017 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-06-04T13:22:38Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2019-06-04T13:22:38Z |
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv |
Artículo de revista |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion |
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dc.identifier.uri.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/11323/4773 |
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv |
Corporación Universidad de la Costa |
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv |
REDICUC - Repositorio CUC |
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https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/ |
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https://hdl.handle.net/11323/4773 https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/ |
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Corporación Universidad de la Costa REDICUC - Repositorio CUC |
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eng |
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eng |
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https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5 |
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World population prospects: the 2017 revision, methodology of the united nations population estimates and projections. 2017. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/Files/ WPP2017_Methodology.pdf (accessed March 19, 2018). 6 Consejo Nacional de Población CONAPO. Proyecciones de la población 2010–2050. https://www.gob.mx/conapo/acciones-yprogramas/conciliacion-demografica-de-mexico-1950-2015-yproyecciones-de-la-poblacion-de-mexico-y-de-las-entidades-federativas2016-2050 Proyecciones (accessed March 14, 2018). 7 US Census Bureau. International data base. Dec 5, 2017. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/ about/idb.html (accessed March 14, 2018). 8 Population Reference Bureau. 2017 World population data sheet with a special focus on youth. 2017. https://www.prb.org/wpcontent/uploads/2017/08/WPDS-2017.pdf (accessed June 21, 2018). 9 World Bank Group. Population estimates and projections. 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Documentation of the 2000 round of population and housing censures in the EU, EFTA and candidate countries: part III and annexes. Sept 21, 2004. https://ec.europa.eu/ eurostat/documents/3888793/5831893/KS-CC-04-003-EN. PDF/7264ad74-4719-404f-af3a-d2bf4cc3f71d?version=1.0 (accessed Oct 15, 2018). 30 Centro Centroamericano de Población. Evaluación demográfica del X Censo Nacional de Población de Costa Rica 2011 y de otras fuentes de información. March, 2013. https://ccp.ucr.ac.cr/observa/ CRnacional/pdf/Evaluacion%20censal%20FINAL%20marzo%20 2013.pdf (accessed Oct 15, 2018). 31 Cabella W, Filgueira F, Giusti A, Macadar D. Informe de la comisión técnica honoraria para la evaluacion del censo Uruguay 2011. Aug 7, 2012. http://www.ine.gub.uy/documents/10181/ 63830/Informe+de+la+Comisi%C3%B3n+T%C3%A9cnica+Honor aria/0624ef71-f00e-44ab-a69c-3eede9d127d5 (accessed Oct 15, 2018). 32 El Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía. Resultados de la encuesta de posenumeración del Censo de Población y Vivienda 2010. 2012. https://celade.cepal.org/censosinfo/manuales/MX_ ResultEncPosEnumeracion_2010.pdf (accessed Oct 15, 2018). 33 de la Mora F. Paraguay: proyección de la población nacional, áreas urbana y rural por sexo y edad, 2000–2025: revisión 2015. October, 2015. http://www.dgeec.gov.py/Publicaciones/Biblioteca/ proyeccion%20nacional/Estimacion%20y%20proyeccion%20 Nacional.pdf (accessed Oct 15, 2018). 34 Bravo D, Larrañaga O, Millán I, Ruiz M, Zamorano F. Informe final, comisión externa, revisora del Censo 2012. Aug 7, 2013. http://www.cl.undp.org/content/chile/es/home/library/poverty/ informes_de_comisiones/informe-final--comision-externa-revisoradel-censo-2012.html (accessed Oct 15, 2018). 35 Lyons-Amos M, Stones T. Trends in Demographic and Health Survey data quality: an analysis of age heaping over time in 34 countries in Sub Saharan Africa between 1987 and 2015. 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Mapping child growth failure in Africa between 2000 and 2015. Nature 2018; 555: 41–47 |
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Murray L., Christopher JCallender H, Charlton S KKulikoff, Xie RachelSrinivasan, VinayAbate, DeguAbate, Kalkidan HassenAbay, Solomon MAbbasi, NooshinAbbastabar, HedayatAlvis-Guzman, Nelson2019-06-04T13:22:38Z2019-06-04T13:22:38Z2017https://hdl.handle.net/11323/4773Corporación Universidad de la CostaREDICUC - Repositorio CUChttps://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories.Antecedentes Las estimaciones de población sustentan la investigación demográfica y epidemiológica y se utilizan para realizar un seguimiento del progreso Sobre numerosos indicadores internacionales de salud y desarrollo. Hasta la fecha, las estimaciones disponibles internacionalmente de La población y la fertilidad, aunque útiles, no se han producido con métodos transparentes y replicables y no se han producido. Utilizar estimaciones estandarizadas de mortalidad. Presentamos estimaciones de fertilidad de un solo año calendario y de un solo año de edad. y población por sexo con métodos estandarizados y replicables. Métodos Estimamos la población en 195 ubicaciones por año de edad y año calendario de 1950 a 2017 Con métodos estandarizados y replicables. Basamos las estimaciones en la ecuación de equilibrio demográfico, con Insumos de fertilidad, mortalidad, población y migración. Los datos de fertilidad provienen de 7817 años de localización de vital datos de registro, 429 encuestas que informan historiales completos de nacimientos y 977 encuestas y censos que informan el resumen Historias de nacimiento. Estimamos las tasas de fertilidad específicas por edad (ASFR, por sus siglas en inglés; el número anual de nacimientos vivos de mujeres de un grupo de edad especificado por 1000 mujeres en ese grupo de edad) mediante el uso de regresión del proceso gaussiano espaciotemporal y se utiliza los ASFR para estimar las tasas de fertilidad total (TFR, el número promedio de hijos que una mujer tendría si sobreviviera hasta el final de la edad reproductiva [edad 10–54 años] y experimentó en cada edad un conjunto particular de ASFR observado en el año de interés). Debido a la escasez de datos, se estimó la fertilidad entre las edades de 10 a 14 años y de 50 a 54 años. a partir de datos sobre fertilidad en mujeres de 15 a 19 años y de 45 a 49 años, mediante el uso de regresión lineal. Edad específica los datos de mortalidad provienen de las estimaciones de 2017 de la Carga Global de Enfermedades, Lesiones y Factores de Riesgo (GBD). Datos sobre la población provino de 1257 censos y 761 años de registro de población y se ajustaron para La subenumeración y la edad de los informes con métodos demográficos estándar. La migración se estimó con la Modelo de equilibrio demográfico bayesiano de GBD, después de incorporar información sobre la migración de refugiados al modelo anterior. Las estimaciones de población finales utilizaron el método de cohorte de componente de proyección de la población, con insumos de fertilidad, mortalidad, y datos de migración. La incertidumbre de la población se estimó mediante el uso de pruebas de validez predictiva fuera de la muestra. Con estos datos, estimamos las tendencias en la población por edad y sexo y en la fertilidad por edad entre 1950 y 2017 en 195 países y territorios.Murray L., Christopher J-aa67940c-02c0-4b29-8a52-04f7bf3a52bb-0Callender H, Charlton S K-96a2f22f-7ce6-4d89-8fe9-ba9b3ffcdc1e-0Kulikoff, Xie Rachel-1f9d279a-b5c9-4545-99d4-05f3b092c48a-0Srinivasan, Vinay-bbf74be2-9618-4a11-bcb8-aa672367c049-0Abate, Degu-3ef4b67e-d984-47fb-8d9d-e04de0529398-0Abate, Kalkidan Hassen-7f68f0b5-357f-4a33-89cb-cc36d3b43b75-0Abay, Solomon M-6849fef0-eef0-4113-bb1a-e16a8c8e9cd3-0Abbasi, Nooshin-5ecf8be2-10ab-4c39-99b3-122dad7c2c46-0Abbastabar, Hedayat-a0afb53f-f890-42f1-a39f-11d28e6c0395-0Alvis-Guzman, Nelson-5926771a-a351-4df4-86d8-05f67bd93051-0engThe Lancethttps://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-51 Thomas RK. 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