Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis
To model the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic including new VOCs and vaccines and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program in Colombia. We developed a SEIARHUDSq micro-simulation model through nine exhaustive and mutually exclusive states: susceptible, exposed, symptomatic-infecte...
- Autores:
-
Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos
ALVIS-ZAKZUK, NELSON J.
Diaz-Jimenez, D
Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson
- Tipo de recurso:
- Article of journal
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2022
- Institución:
- Corporación Universidad de la Costa
- Repositorio:
- REDICUC - Repositorio CUC
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.cuc.edu.co:11323/9388
- Acceso en línea:
- https://hdl.handle.net/11323/9388
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325
https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/
- Palabra clave:
- COVID-19
Vaccination
Colombia
- Rights
- embargoedAccess
- License
- Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
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dc.title.eng.fl_str_mv |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis |
title |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis |
spellingShingle |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis COVID-19 Vaccination Colombia |
title_short |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis |
title_full |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis |
title_fullStr |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis |
title_sort |
Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysis |
dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos ALVIS-ZAKZUK, NELSON J. Diaz-Jimenez, D Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson |
dc.contributor.author.spa.fl_str_mv |
Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos ALVIS-ZAKZUK, NELSON J. Diaz-Jimenez, D Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson |
dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
COVID-19 Vaccination |
topic |
COVID-19 Vaccination Colombia |
dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Colombia |
description |
To model the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic including new VOCs and vaccines and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program in Colombia. We developed a SEIARHUDSq micro-simulation model through nine exhaustive and mutually exclusive states: susceptible, exposed, symptomatic-infected, asymptomatic-infected, recovered, hospitalized general ward, Intensive Care Unit, death, and sequela. SEIARHUDSq was run with data reported up to October 21, 2021, and adjusted as a system of differential equations based on epidemiological (cases, deaths, VOCs, vaccine effectiveness, etc.) and economic (vaccines prices and administration, direct medical costs of states, etc.) inputs obtained from national sources and systematic literature reviews. DALYs and ICERs showed the burden of COVID-19 and the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program. Two scenarios, in addition to do-nothing, were modelled for infection rates (Beta) estimated by an agnostic model: 1) Beta=0.4 and 2) Beta=0.5, for 70 and 90% of vaccination coverages. The effect of the vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, Sinovac, AstraZeneca, and Janssen) was assumed 14 after their application. Willingness-to-pay was set as one GDP per capita (US$5,376). We reported costs in American dollars (1$US=COP$3,702). In Do-nothing scenario the DALYs ranges between 2.3 and 2.4 million. By vaccinating the population, the burden of disease decreased to under 2.15 million DALYs. If 70% of the population were vaccinated, direct medical and vaccination costs (including administration) would be between US$2.1-2.4 billion for a Beta of 0.4-0.5, respectively (net costs). Costs would vary between US$2.3 and 2.4 billion at 90% simulated coverage. COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia have been cost-effective for Beta=0.4 scenario (ICER 70% coverage: US$995.5; ICER 90% coverage: US$1,837) and for Beta=0.5 (ICER 90% coverage: US$1,792). The scenario for Beta=0,5 (ICER 70% coverage) was dominated. COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia, prioritizing elderly and population with comorbidities, has been highly cost-effective in most of the modeled scenarios. |
publishDate |
2022 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-19T18:49:51Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2022-07-19T18:49:51Z 2023 |
dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2022 |
dc.type.spa.fl_str_mv |
Artículo de revista |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1 |
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dc.type.content.spa.fl_str_mv |
Text |
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dc.identifier.citation.spa.fl_str_mv |
C Castañeda-Orjuela, N Alvis-Zakzuk, D Diaz-Jimenez, N Alvis-Guzman, EE71 Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Colombia: A Micro-Simulation Modelling Analysis, Value in Health, Volume 25, Issue 7, Supplement, 2022, Page S348, ISSN 1098-3015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325. |
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv |
1098-3015 |
dc.identifier.uri.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://hdl.handle.net/11323/9388 |
dc.identifier.url.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325 |
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv |
10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325 |
dc.identifier.eissn.spa.fl_str_mv |
1524-4733 |
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv |
Corporación Universidad de la Costa |
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv |
REDICUC - Repositorio CUC |
dc.identifier.repourl.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/ |
identifier_str_mv |
C Castañeda-Orjuela, N Alvis-Zakzuk, D Diaz-Jimenez, N Alvis-Guzman, EE71 Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Colombia: A Micro-Simulation Modelling Analysis, Value in Health, Volume 25, Issue 7, Supplement, 2022, Page S348, ISSN 1098-3015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325. 1098-3015 10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325 1524-4733 Corporación Universidad de la Costa REDICUC - Repositorio CUC |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11323/9388 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325 https://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/ |
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.ispartofjournal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Value in Health |
dc.relation.citationissue.spa.fl_str_mv |
7 |
dc.relation.citationvolume.spa.fl_str_mv |
25 |
dc.rights.spa.fl_str_mv |
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) © 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc. |
dc.rights.uri.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccess |
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Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) © 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cf |
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dc.format.extent.spa.fl_str_mv |
2 páginas |
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application/pdf |
dc.coverage.country.none.fl_str_mv |
Colombia |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Elsevier Ltd. |
dc.publisher.place.spa.fl_str_mv |
United Kingdom |
institution |
Corporación Universidad de la Costa |
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Castañeda-Orjuela, CarlosALVIS-ZAKZUK, NELSON J.Diaz-Jimenez, DAlvis-Guzmán, Nelson2022-07-19T18:49:51Z20232022-07-19T18:49:51Z2022C Castañeda-Orjuela, N Alvis-Zakzuk, D Diaz-Jimenez, N Alvis-Guzman, EE71 Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Colombia: A Micro-Simulation Modelling Analysis, Value in Health, Volume 25, Issue 7, Supplement, 2022, Page S348, ISSN 1098-3015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.325.1098-3015https://hdl.handle.net/11323/9388https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2022.04.32510.1016/j.jval.2022.04.3251524-4733Corporación Universidad de la CostaREDICUC - Repositorio CUChttps://repositorio.cuc.edu.co/To model the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic including new VOCs and vaccines and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program in Colombia. We developed a SEIARHUDSq micro-simulation model through nine exhaustive and mutually exclusive states: susceptible, exposed, symptomatic-infected, asymptomatic-infected, recovered, hospitalized general ward, Intensive Care Unit, death, and sequela. SEIARHUDSq was run with data reported up to October 21, 2021, and adjusted as a system of differential equations based on epidemiological (cases, deaths, VOCs, vaccine effectiveness, etc.) and economic (vaccines prices and administration, direct medical costs of states, etc.) inputs obtained from national sources and systematic literature reviews. DALYs and ICERs showed the burden of COVID-19 and the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program. Two scenarios, in addition to do-nothing, were modelled for infection rates (Beta) estimated by an agnostic model: 1) Beta=0.4 and 2) Beta=0.5, for 70 and 90% of vaccination coverages. The effect of the vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, Sinovac, AstraZeneca, and Janssen) was assumed 14 after their application. Willingness-to-pay was set as one GDP per capita (US$5,376). We reported costs in American dollars (1$US=COP$3,702). In Do-nothing scenario the DALYs ranges between 2.3 and 2.4 million. By vaccinating the population, the burden of disease decreased to under 2.15 million DALYs. If 70% of the population were vaccinated, direct medical and vaccination costs (including administration) would be between US$2.1-2.4 billion for a Beta of 0.4-0.5, respectively (net costs). Costs would vary between US$2.3 and 2.4 billion at 90% simulated coverage. COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia have been cost-effective for Beta=0.4 scenario (ICER 70% coverage: US$995.5; ICER 90% coverage: US$1,837) and for Beta=0.5 (ICER 90% coverage: US$1,792). The scenario for Beta=0,5 (ICER 70% coverage) was dominated. COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia, prioritizing elderly and population with comorbidities, has been highly cost-effective in most of the modeled scenarios.2 páginasapplication/pdfengElsevier Ltd.United KingdomAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)© 2022 Published by Elsevier Inc.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/info:eu-repo/semantics/embargoedAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_f1cfCost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Colombia: a micro-simulation modelling analysisArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/articlehttp://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/ARThttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_b1a7d7d4d402bccehttps://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(22)00526-5/fulltext#%20ColombiaValue in Health725COVID-19VaccinationColombiaPublicationORIGINALCost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Colombia.pdfCost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 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