Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis

Autores:: Whittaker, Charles
Watson, Oliver J.
Moreno, Carlos Alvarez
Angkasekwinai, Nasikarn
Boonyasiri, Adhiratha
Triana, Luis Carlos
Chanda, Duncan
Charoenpong, Lantharita
Chayakulkeeree, Methee
Cooke, Graham S.
Croda, Julio
Cucunubá, Zulma M
Djaafara, Bimandra A.
Estofolete, Cassia F.
Grillet, Maria Eugenia
Faria, Nuno R
Figueiredo Costa, Silvia
Forero Peña, David A
Gibb, Diana M
Gordon, Anthony C
Hamers, Raph L.
Hamlet, Arran
Irawany, Vera
Jitmuang, Anupop
Hallett, Timothy B.
Walker, Patrick G.T.
Walker, Patrick G.T.
Winskill, Peter
Valderrama-Beltrán, Sandra
Udwadia, Zarir
Thompson, Hayley A.
Srisangthong, Pratthana
Sposito, Andrei C.
Sirijatuphat, Rujipas
Sari, Djayanti
Sangkaew, Sorawat
Sabino, Ester C.
Rodger, Alison J.
Qavi, Ambar
Promsin, Panuwat
Phillips, Andrew N.
Perroud Jr., Mauricio W.
Ortiz Prado, Esteban
Nogueira, Mauricio L.
Hannah Njeri, Ng’ang’a Irene
Ngamprasertchai, Thundon
Nayagam, Shevanthi
Mustafa, Rima
Lopardo, Gustavo
Levin, Anna S.
Lampo, Margarita
Keurueangkul, Nukool

Tipo de recurso:: Article of investigation

Fecha de publicación:: 2021

Institución:: Pontificia Universidad Javeriana

Repositorio:: Repositorio Universidad Javeriana

Idioma:: eng

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dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis
title	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis
spellingShingle	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Epidemics Infection COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Epidemics Infection
title_short	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis
title_full	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis
title_fullStr	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis
title_full_unstemmed	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis
title_sort	Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis
dc.creator.fl_str_mv	Whittaker, Charles Watson, Oliver J. Moreno, Carlos Alvarez Angkasekwinai, Nasikarn Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Triana, Luis Carlos Chanda, Duncan Charoenpong, Lantharita Chayakulkeeree, Methee Cooke, Graham S. Croda, Julio Cucunubá, Zulma M Djaafara, Bimandra A. Estofolete, Cassia F. Grillet, Maria Eugenia Faria, Nuno R Figueiredo Costa, Silvia Forero Peña, David A Gibb, Diana M Gordon, Anthony C Hamers, Raph L. Hamlet, Arran Irawany, Vera Jitmuang, Anupop Hallett, Timothy B. Walker, Patrick G.T. Walker, Patrick G.T. Winskill, Peter Valderrama-Beltrán, Sandra Udwadia, Zarir Thompson, Hayley A. Srisangthong, Pratthana Sposito, Andrei C. Sirijatuphat, Rujipas Sari, Djayanti Sangkaew, Sorawat Sabino, Ester C. Rodger, Alison J. Qavi, Ambar Promsin, Panuwat Phillips, Andrew N. Perroud Jr., Mauricio W. Ortiz Prado, Esteban Nogueira, Mauricio L. Hannah Njeri, Ng’ang’a Irene Ngamprasertchai, Thundon Nayagam, Shevanthi Mustafa, Rima Lopardo, Gustavo Levin, Anna S. Lampo, Margarita Keurueangkul, Nukool
dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv	Whittaker, Charles Watson, Oliver J. Moreno, Carlos Alvarez Angkasekwinai, Nasikarn Boonyasiri, Adhiratha Triana, Luis Carlos Chanda, Duncan Charoenpong, Lantharita Chayakulkeeree, Methee Cooke, Graham S. Croda, Julio Cucunubá, Zulma M Djaafara, Bimandra A. Estofolete, Cassia F. Grillet, Maria Eugenia Faria, Nuno R Figueiredo Costa, Silvia Forero Peña, David A Gibb, Diana M Gordon, Anthony C Hamers, Raph L. Hamlet, Arran Irawany, Vera Jitmuang, Anupop Hallett, Timothy B. Walker, Patrick G.T. Walker, Patrick G.T. Winskill, Peter Valderrama-Beltrán, Sandra Udwadia, Zarir Thompson, Hayley A. Srisangthong, Pratthana Sposito, Andrei C. Sirijatuphat, Rujipas Sari, Djayanti Sangkaew, Sorawat Sabino, Ester C. Rodger, Alison J. Qavi, Ambar Promsin, Panuwat Phillips, Andrew N. Perroud Jr., Mauricio W. Ortiz Prado, Esteban Nogueira, Mauricio L. Hannah Njeri, Ng’ang’a Irene Ngamprasertchai, Thundon Nayagam, Shevanthi Mustafa, Rima Lopardo, Gustavo Levin, Anna S. Lampo, Margarita Keurueangkul, Nukool
dc.contributor.corporatename.spa.fl_str_mv	Pontificia Universidad Javeriana. Facultad de Medicina. Departamento de Epidemiología Clínica y Bioestadística
dc.subject.spa.fl_str_mv	COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Epidemics Infection
topic	COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Epidemics Infection COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Epidemics Infection
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv	COVID-19 pandemic SARS-CoV-2 Epidemics Infection
description	Q1
publishDate	2021
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv	2021-06-20
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv	2022-01-25T17:25:42Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv	2022-01-25T17:25:42Z
dc.type.local.spa.fl_str_mv	Artículo de revista
dc.type.coar.spa.fl_str_mv	http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1
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dc.identifier.spa.fl_str_mv	https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.17.21259078v1
dc.identifier.issn.spa.fl_str_mv	0959-8138
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv	http://hdl.handle.net/10554/58643
dc.identifier.doi.spa.fl_str_mv	https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.17.21259078
dc.identifier.instname.spa.fl_str_mv	instname:Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
dc.identifier.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv	reponame:Repositorio Institucional - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
dc.identifier.repourl.spa.fl_str_mv	repourl:https://repository.javeriana.edu.co
url	https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.17.21259078v1 http://hdl.handle.net/10554/58643 https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.17.21259078
identifier_str_mv	0959-8138 instname:Pontificia Universidad Javeriana reponame:Repositorio Institucional - Pontificia Universidad Javeriana repourl:https://repository.javeriana.edu.co
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv	eng
language	eng
dc.relation.citationstartpage.spa.fl_str_mv	1
dc.relation.citationendpage.spa.fl_str_mv	17
dc.relation.ispartofjournal.spa.fl_str_mv	BMJ
dc.rights.licence.*.fl_str_mv	Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional
dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
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rights_invalid_str_mv	Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacional http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
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institution	Pontificia Universidad Javeriana
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spelling	Atribución-NoComercial 4.0 Internacionalhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Whittaker, CharlesWatson, Oliver J.Moreno, Carlos AlvarezAngkasekwinai, NasikarnBoonyasiri, AdhirathaTriana, Luis CarlosChanda, DuncanCharoenpong, LantharitaChayakulkeeree, MetheeCooke, Graham S.Croda, JulioCucunubá, Zulma MDjaafara, Bimandra A.Estofolete, Cassia F.Grillet, Maria EugeniaFaria, Nuno RFigueiredo Costa, SilviaForero Peña, David AGibb, Diana MGordon, Anthony CHamers, Raph L.Hamlet, ArranIrawany, VeraJitmuang, AnupopHallett, Timothy B.Walker, Patrick G.T.Walker, Patrick G.T.Winskill, PeterValderrama-Beltrán, SandraUdwadia, ZarirThompson, Hayley A.Srisangthong, PratthanaSposito, Andrei C.Sirijatuphat, RujipasSari, DjayantiSangkaew, SorawatSabino, Ester C.Rodger, Alison J.Qavi, AmbarPromsin, PanuwatPhillips, Andrew N.Perroud Jr., Mauricio W.Ortiz Prado, EstebanNogueira, Mauricio L.Hannah Njeri, Ng’ang’a IreneNgamprasertchai, ThundonNayagam, ShevanthiMustafa, RimaLopardo, GustavoLevin, Anna S.Lampo, MargaritaKeurueangkul, NukoolPontificia Universidad Javeriana. Facultad de Medicina. Departamento de Epidemiología Clínica y Bioestadística2022-01-25T17:25:42Z2022-01-25T17:25:42Z2021-06-20https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.17.21259078v10959-8138http://hdl.handle.net/10554/58643https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.17.21259078instname:Pontificia Universidad Javerianareponame:Repositorio Institucional - Pontificia Universidad Javerianarepourl:https://repository.javeriana.edu.coPDFapplication/pdfengCOVID-19 pandemicSARS-CoV-2EpidemicsInfectionCOVID-19 pandemicSARS-CoV-2EpidemicsInfectionUnderstanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysisArtículo de revistahttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_2df8fbb1Q1Q1Background The unprecedented public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear. Methods and Findings develop a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care to explore the potential public-health impact of a range of different potential therapeutics, under a range of different scenarios varying: i) healthcare capacity, ii) epidemic trajectories; and iii) drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care. In each case, the outcome of interest was the number of COVID-19 deaths averted in scenarios with the therapeutic compared to scenarios without. We find the impact of drugs like dexamethasone (which are delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in highincome countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics. Conclusions There is a global asymmetry in who is likely to benefit from advances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date, which have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics that can feasibly be delivered to those earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priorityRevista Internacional - Indexada117BMJLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-82603http://repository.javeriana.edu.co/bitstream/10554/58643/2/license.txt2070d280cc89439d983d9eee1b17df53MD52open accessORIGINALUnderstanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS CoV 2.pdfUnderstanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS CoV 2.pdfArtículo preprintapplication/pdf1095173http://repository.javeriana.edu.co/bitstream/10554/58643/1/Understanding%20the%20Potential%20Impact%20of%20Different%20Drug%20Properties%20On%20SARS%20CoV%202.pdfc85dfd2e7c1f7dc7c8d4d19975857cd3MD51open accessTHUMBNAILUnderstanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS CoV 2.pdf.jpgUnderstanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS CoV 2.pdf.jpgIM Thumbnailimage/jpeg9427http://repository.javeriana.edu.co/bitstream/10554/58643/3/Understanding%20the%20Potential%20Impact%20of%20Different%20Drug%20Properties%20On%20SARS%20CoV%202.pdf.jpg8dd5602195e532ab3254c3c192149b93MD53open access10554/58643oai:repository.javeriana.edu.co:10554/586432022-02-06 03:04:40.279Repositorio Institucional - Pontificia Universidad Javerianarepositorio@javeriana.edu.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

Understanding the potential impact of different drug properties on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease burden : a modelling analysis

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