The ex-ante effects of non-contributory pensions in Colombia and Peru

The aim of this paper is to study the ex-ante e ects of the implementation of a Non Con- tributory Pension (NCP) program in Colombia and Peru. Relying on household survey data, we simulate the potential impact of the transfer on poverty, inequality, scal cost, and the probability of a liation to the contributory pension system. This last e ect is the most direct behavioral e ect one can expect from the implementation of a NCP scheme. For the behavioral response we estimate a Nested Logit Model. Our results show that a NCP in Colombia and Peru contributes to the reduction of poverty and inequality among the elderly, particularly in rural areas at a ordable scal costs. Furthermore, there is not a large impact on the prob- ability of a liation to contributory pensions when the program is targeted to the poor (and extreme poor), with the exception of Peruvian women for whom there is always a sizeable reduction on their probability of a liation to the contributory pension system.

• Autores: Olivera, Javier; Zuluaga Díaz, Blanca Cecilia
• Tipo de recurso: Article of investigation
• Fecha de publicación: 2014
• Institución: Universidad ICESI
• Repositorio: Repositorio ICESI
• Idioma: eng
• OAI Identifier: oai:repository.icesi.edu.co:10906/78318
• Acceso en línea: http://www.ecineq.org/milano/wp/ecineq2013-299.pdf; http://hdl.handle.net/10906/78318; http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jid.3008
• Palabra clave: Economía; Seguridad social; Pensiones a la vejez; Pobreza; Pensiones en Colombia; Pensiones en Perú; Economics
• Rights: openAccess
• License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/