Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin
This study presents a new statistical downscaling method called Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD). The method is based on three main steps: Phase space reconstruction for different time steps, identification of deterministic chaos and a general synchronization predictive model. The Bogotá river...
- Autores:
-
Duarte, Freddy Santiago
Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo
- Tipo de recurso:
- Part of book
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2018
- Institución:
- Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio Institucional ECI
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co:001/1736
- Acceso en línea:
- https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1736
- Palabra clave:
- Agricultura
Agua - Distribución
Gestión eficiente del agua
Agrícultura
Efficient water manageme
Agricultural
- Rights
- closedAccess
- License
- http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb
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Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin |
| title |
Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin |
| spellingShingle |
Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin Agricultura Agua - Distribución Gestión eficiente del agua Agrícultura Efficient water manageme Agricultural |
| title_short |
Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin |
| title_full |
Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin |
| title_fullStr |
Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin |
| title_sort |
Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Duarte, Freddy Santiago Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Duarte, Freddy Santiago Santos Granados, Germán Ricardo |
| dc.contributor.researchgroup.spa.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Estudios Hidráulicos |
| dc.subject.armarc.none.fl_str_mv |
Agricultura Agua - Distribución |
| topic |
Agricultura Agua - Distribución Gestión eficiente del agua Agrícultura Efficient water manageme Agricultural |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Gestión eficiente del agua Agrícultura |
| dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
Efficient water manageme Agricultural |
| description |
This study presents a new statistical downscaling method called Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD). The method is based on three main steps: Phase space reconstruction for different time steps, identification of deterministic chaos and a general synchronization predictive model. The Bogotá river basin was used to test the methodology. Two sources of climatic information are downscaled: the first corresponds to 47 rainfall gauges stations (1970-2016, daily) and the second is derived from the information of the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR with a resolution of 1,875° x 1,875° daily resolution. These time series were used to reconstruct the phase space using the Method of Time-Delay. The Time-Delay method allows us to find the appropriate values of the time delay and the embedding dimension to capture the dynamics of the attractor. This information was used to calculate the exponents of Lyapunov, which shows the existence of deterministic chaos. Subsequently, a predictive model is created based on the general synchronization of two dynamical systems. Finally, the results obtained are compared with other statistical downscaling models for the Bogota River basin using different measures of error which show that the proposed method is able to reproduce reliable rainfall values (RMSE=73.37). |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2018 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-11T17:11:22Z |
| dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-11T17:11:22Z |
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Capítulo - Parte de Libro |
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http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248 |
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Text |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart |
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https://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/LIB |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248 |
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publishedVersion |
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25162330 |
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https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1736 |
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25162330 |
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https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1736 |
| dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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13th |
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634 |
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626 |
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N/A |
| dc.relation.ispartofbook.eng.fl_str_mv |
International Conference on Hydroinformatics International Conference on Hydroinformatics |
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http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb |
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info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess |
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closedAccess |
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http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb |
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application/pdf |
| dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Ed. Easy Chair Publications |
| dc.publisher.place.spa.fl_str_mv |
Italia |
| dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://www.un-ihe.org/chaotic-statistical-downscaling-csd-application-and-comparison-bogot%C3%A1-river-basin |
| institution |
Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito |
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Duarte, Freddy Santiago1693cfb11fbf543f5d66f3f03bf8d12e600Santos Granados, Germán Ricardof949dd96cd566df57a30454178163e04600Centro de Estudios Hidráulicos2021-10-11T17:11:22Z2021-10-11T17:11:22Z201825162330https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1736This study presents a new statistical downscaling method called Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD). The method is based on three main steps: Phase space reconstruction for different time steps, identification of deterministic chaos and a general synchronization predictive model. The Bogotá river basin was used to test the methodology. Two sources of climatic information are downscaled: the first corresponds to 47 rainfall gauges stations (1970-2016, daily) and the second is derived from the information of the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR with a resolution of 1,875° x 1,875° daily resolution. These time series were used to reconstruct the phase space using the Method of Time-Delay. The Time-Delay method allows us to find the appropriate values of the time delay and the embedding dimension to capture the dynamics of the attractor. This information was used to calculate the exponents of Lyapunov, which shows the existence of deterministic chaos. Subsequently, a predictive model is created based on the general synchronization of two dynamical systems. Finally, the results obtained are compared with other statistical downscaling models for the Bogota River basin using different measures of error which show that the proposed method is able to reproduce reliable rainfall values (RMSE=73.37).Este estudio presenta un nuevo método estadístico de reducción de escala denominado Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD). El método se basa en tres pasos principales: Reconstrucción del espacio de fase para diferentes pasos temporales, identificación del caos determinista y un modelo predictivo de sincronización general. Para probar la metodología se utilizó la cuenca del río Bogotá. metodología. Se escalan dos fuentes de información climática: la primera corresponde a 47 estaciones pluviométricas (1970-2016, diaria) y la segunda se deriva de la información del modelo climático global MPI-ESM-MR con una resolución de 1,875° x 1,875° de resolución diaria. Estas series temporales se utilizaron para reconstruir el espacio de fase mediante el método del tiempo de retardo. El método Time-Delay nos permite encontrar los valores adecuados del retardo temporal y la dimensión de incrustación para captar la dinámica del atractor. Esta información se utilizó para calcular los exponentes de Lyapunov, lo que demuestra la existencia de caos determinista. Posteriormente, se crea un modelo predictivo basado en la sincronización general de dos sistemas dinámicos. dinámicos. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos se comparan con otros modelos estadísticos de downscaling de la cuenca del río Bogotá utilizando diferentes medidas de error que muestran que el método propuesto es capaz de reproducir valores de precipitación confiables (RMSE=73.37).application/pdfengEd. Easy Chair PublicationsItaliahttps://www.un-ihe.org/chaotic-statistical-downscaling-csd-application-and-comparison-bogot%C3%A1-river-basinChaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River BasinCapítulo - Parte de Libroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/bookParthttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/LIBhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a8513th634626N/AInternational Conference on HydroinformaticsInternational Conference on Hydroinformaticsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cbAgriculturaAgua - DistribuciónGestión eficiente del aguaAgrículturaEfficient water managemeAgriculturalTHUMBNAILChaotic statical downscaling (CSD) Applicationi and comparison in the Bogotá River Basin.pngChaotic statical downscaling (CSD) Applicationi and comparison in the Bogotá River Basin.pngimage/png128099https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1736/5/Chaotic%20statical%20downscaling%20%28CSD%29%20Applicationi%20and%20comparison%20in%20the%20Bogot%c3%a1%20River%20Basin.png36d1025c2fea74a86072ddb00aff1b07MD55open accessChaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD) Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin - Articulo.pdf.jpgChaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD) Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin - Articulo.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg11937https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1736/7/Chaotic%20Statistical%20Downscaling%20%28CSD%29%20Application%20and%20Comparison%20in%20the%20Bogot%c3%a1%20River%20Basin%20-%20Articulo.pdf.jpg4732dfd00469419c9e22c906aa033b01MD57metadata only accessORIGINALChaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD) Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin - Articulo.pdfChaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD) Application and Comparison in the Bogotá River Basin - Articulo.pdfArtículo de revistaapplication/pdf1146067https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1736/4/Chaotic%20Statistical%20Downscaling%20%28CSD%29%20Application%20and%20Comparison%20in%20the%20Bogot%c3%a1%20River%20Basin%20-%20Articulo.pdf87f150a6ac390047f3f97363136442f2MD54metadata only accessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; 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