Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios
In this paper we analyze the implications of different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on the precipitation of the Totaré River basin located in the Department of Tolima, Colombia, and its possible consequences on the productive systems of the area. In the...
- Autores:
-
Duarte Prieto, Freddy Santiago
Jordi Rafael, Palacios Gonzalez
Germán Ricardo, Santos Granados
- Tipo de recurso:
- Part of book
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2018
- Institución:
- Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio Institucional ECI
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co:001/1725
- Acceso en línea:
- https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1725
- Palabra clave:
- Agricultura
Precipitación
Agriculture
Precipitation
GCM
Agricultura
Precipitación
GCM
- Rights
- closedAccess
- License
- http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb
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Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| spellingShingle |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios Agricultura Precipitación Agriculture Precipitation GCM Agricultura Precipitación GCM |
| title_short |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_fullStr |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_sort |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Duarte Prieto, Freddy Santiago Jordi Rafael, Palacios Gonzalez Germán Ricardo, Santos Granados |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Duarte Prieto, Freddy Santiago Jordi Rafael, Palacios Gonzalez Germán Ricardo, Santos Granados |
| dc.contributor.researchgroup.spa.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Estudios Hidráulicos |
| dc.subject.armarc.none.fl_str_mv |
Agricultura Precipitación |
| topic |
Agricultura Precipitación Agriculture Precipitation GCM Agricultura Precipitación GCM |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Agriculture Precipitation GCM Agricultura Precipitación GCM |
| description |
In this paper we analyze the implications of different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on the precipitation of the Totaré River basin located in the Department of Tolima, Colombia, and its possible consequences on the productive systems of the area. In the analysis, we employed the global climatic model MPI-ESM-MR with 22 pluviographic stations of the IDEAM and the CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), a novel downscaling model for different intervals of accumulation of precipitation (5, 7, 10, 15 and 30 days). The results predict an increase of the precipitation in the Totaré River Basin from 10% to 50% for the middle and end of the century under all RCP scenarios. It is necessary to take measures to ensure adequate agricultural production due to possible flooding or soil erosion. |
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2018 |
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2018 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-09-14T18:47:01Z 2021-10-01T17:30:08Z |
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2021-09-14T18:47:01Z 2021-10-01T17:30:08Z |
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Capítulo - Parte de Libro |
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http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248 |
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Text |
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9783030044466 |
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https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1725 |
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9783030044466 |
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eng |
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eng |
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248 |
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234 |
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N/A |
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Advances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change II |
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Angarita, H.: Methodology to include climatic variability and climate change scenarios in the WEAP model of the Magdalena River Basin macro and results of the simulations. Informe TNC, Bogotá (2014) Corporación Autonoma Regional del Tolima: Management Plan for the Totaré River Basin. CORTOLIMA (2012) Duarte, F., Corzo, G., Hernández, O., Santos, G.: Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): application and comparison in the Bogotá River Basin. In: La Loggia, G., Freni, G., Puleo, V., De Marchis, M. (eds.) HIC 2018. EPiC Series in Engineering, vol. 3, pp. 626–634. Palermo (2018) Duarte, F., Corzo, G., Hernández, O., Santos, G.: Evaluación Hidrológica de la Tecnica de Reducción de Escala CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling) en la Cuenca del Rio Bogotá. In: XXVIII Congreso Latinoamericano de Hidráulica e Hidrologia, Buenos Aires (2018) Fernandez, M.: Agroclimatic risk assessment by sector. IDEAM (2013) González-Miranda, J.: Synchronization and Control of Chaos. Imperial College Press, Barcelona (2004) Kraaijenbrink, P.: Advanced Delta Change Method Extension of an application to CMIP5 GCMs. Internal report IR 2013–04, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Insitute, De Bilt (2013) Rulkov, N.F., Sushchik, M.M., Tsmiring, L.S., Abarbanel, H.D.I.: Generalized synchronization of chaos in directionally coupled chaotic systems. Phys. Rev. E 51(2), 980–994 (1995) Siek, M.: Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation, Ensembles. Delft (2011) Soares, P., et al.: WRF high resolution dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim for Portugal. Clim. Dyn. 39(9–10), 2497–2522 (2012) Sivakumar, B., Berndtsson, R.: Advances in Data-Based Approaches for Hydrologic Modeling and Forecasting. World Scientific Publishing, Singapore (2010) Vu, M., et al.: Statistical downscaling rainfall using artificial neuronal network: significantly wetter Bangkok? Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 126(3–4), 453–467 (2016) Wilby, R., Dawson, C.: The Statistical DownScaling Model: insights from one decade of application. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1707–1719 (2013) |
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Ed. Springer Publishing Company |
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Estados Unidos |
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Duarte Prieto, Freddy Santiago375d340655bd68f95a91cb4b23241a77600Jordi Rafael, Palacios Gonzaleza2eee397a703735797b1783bdc058ab2600Germán Ricardo, Santos Granados7e66f492f5ba74d94c89826c0a278abf600Centro de Estudios Hidráulicos2021-09-14T18:47:01Z2021-10-01T17:30:08Z2021-09-14T18:47:01Z2021-10-01T17:30:08Z20189783030044466https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1725In this paper we analyze the implications of different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on the precipitation of the Totaré River basin located in the Department of Tolima, Colombia, and its possible consequences on the productive systems of the area. In the analysis, we employed the global climatic model MPI-ESM-MR with 22 pluviographic stations of the IDEAM and the CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), a novel downscaling model for different intervals of accumulation of precipitation (5, 7, 10, 15 and 30 days). The results predict an increase of the precipitation in the Totaré River Basin from 10% to 50% for the middle and end of the century under all RCP scenarios. It is necessary to take measures to ensure adequate agricultural production due to possible flooding or soil erosion.En este trabajo se analizan las implicaciones de diferentes escenarios de vías de concentración representativas (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 y RCP8.5) sobre la precipitación de la cuenca del río Totaré ubicada en el departamento del Tolima, Colombia, y sus posibles consecuencias sobre los sistemas productivos de la zona. En el análisis se empleó el modelo climático global MPI-ESM-MR con 22 estaciones pluviográficas del IDEAM y el CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), un novedoso modelo de downscaling para diferentes intervalos de acumulación de precipitación (5, 7, 10, 15 y 30 días). Los resultados predicen un aumento de la precipitación en la cuenca del río Totaré del 10% al 50% para mediados y finales de siglo bajo todos los escenarios RCP. Es necesario tomar medidas para garantizar una producción agrícola adecuada debido a las posibles inundaciones o a la erosión del suelo.application/pdfengEd. Springer Publishing CompanyEstados Unidoshttps://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-04447-3_16Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change ScenariosCapítulo - Parte de Libroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/bookParthttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/CAP_LIBhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85248234N/AAdvances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change IIAngarita, H.: Methodology to include climatic variability and climate change scenarios in the WEAP model of the Magdalena River Basin macro and results of the simulations. Informe TNC, Bogotá (2014)Corporación Autonoma Regional del Tolima: Management Plan for the Totaré River Basin. CORTOLIMA (2012)Duarte, F., Corzo, G., Hernández, O., Santos, G.: Chaotic Statistical Downscaling (CSD): application and comparison in the Bogotá River Basin. In: La Loggia, G., Freni, G., Puleo, V., De Marchis, M. (eds.) HIC 2018. EPiC Series in Engineering, vol. 3, pp. 626–634. Palermo (2018)Duarte, F., Corzo, G., Hernández, O., Santos, G.: Evaluación Hidrológica de la Tecnica de Reducción de Escala CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling) en la Cuenca del Rio Bogotá. In: XXVIII Congreso Latinoamericano de Hidráulica e Hidrologia, Buenos Aires (2018)Fernandez, M.: Agroclimatic risk assessment by sector. IDEAM (2013)González-Miranda, J.: Synchronization and Control of Chaos. Imperial College Press, Barcelona (2004)Kraaijenbrink, P.: Advanced Delta Change Method Extension of an application to CMIP5 GCMs. Internal report IR 2013–04, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Insitute, De Bilt (2013)Rulkov, N.F., Sushchik, M.M., Tsmiring, L.S., Abarbanel, H.D.I.: Generalized synchronization of chaos in directionally coupled chaotic systems. Phys. Rev. E 51(2), 980–994 (1995)Siek, M.: Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation, Ensembles. Delft (2011)Soares, P., et al.: WRF high resolution dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim for Portugal. Clim. Dyn. 39(9–10), 2497–2522 (2012)Sivakumar, B., Berndtsson, R.: Advances in Data-Based Approaches for Hydrologic Modeling and Forecasting. World Scientific Publishing, Singapore (2010)Vu, M., et al.: Statistical downscaling rainfall using artificial neuronal network: significantly wetter Bangkok? Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 126(3–4), 453–467 (2016)Wilby, R., Dawson, C.: The Statistical DownScaling Model: insights from one decade of application. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1707–1719 (2013)info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cbAgriculturaPrecipitaciónAgriculturePrecipitationGCMAgriculturaPrecipitaciónGCMTHUMBNAILAdvances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change II - Portada Libro.pngAdvances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change II - Portada Libro.pngimage/png212891https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1725/4/Advances%20in%20Information%20and%20Communication%20Technologies%20for%20Adapting%20Agriculture%20to%20Climate%20Change%20II%20-%20Portada%20Libro.png3f956f1beaed08f77949fa017a2b735cMD54open accessEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdf.jpgEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdf.jpgGenerated 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