Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios
In this paper we analyze the implications of different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on the precipitation of the Totaré River basin located in the Department of Tolima, Colombia, and its possible consequences on the productive systems of the area. In the...
- Autores:
-
Duarte, Freddy
Palacios, Jordi Rafael
Santos, Germán
- Tipo de recurso:
- Part of book
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2018
- Institución:
- Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio Institucional ECI
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co:001/1733
- Acceso en línea:
- https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1733
- Palabra clave:
- Agricultura
Agriculture
Precipitation
GCM
Agricultura
Precipitación
GCM
- Rights
- closedAccess
- License
- http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb
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Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| spellingShingle |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios Agricultura Agriculture Precipitation GCM Agricultura Precipitación GCM |
| title_short |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_fullStr |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_sort |
Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios |
| dc.creator.fl_str_mv |
Duarte, Freddy Palacios, Jordi Rafael Santos, Germán |
| dc.contributor.author.none.fl_str_mv |
Duarte, Freddy Palacios, Jordi Rafael Santos, Germán |
| dc.contributor.researchgroup.spa.fl_str_mv |
Centro de Estudios Hidráulicos |
| dc.subject.armarc.none.fl_str_mv |
Agricultura |
| topic |
Agricultura Agriculture Precipitation GCM Agricultura Precipitación GCM |
| dc.subject.proposal.eng.fl_str_mv |
Agriculture Precipitation GCM |
| dc.subject.proposal.spa.fl_str_mv |
Agricultura Precipitación GCM |
| description |
In this paper we analyze the implications of different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on the precipitation of the Totaré River basin located in the Department of Tolima, Colombia, and its possible consequences on the productive systems of the area. In the analysis, we employed the global climatic model MPI-ESM-MR with 22 pluviographic stations of the IDEAM and the CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), a novel downscaling model for different intervals of accumulation of precipitation (5, 7, 10, 15 and 30 days). The results predict an increase of the precipitation in the Totaré River Basin from 10% to 50% for the middle and end of the century under all RCP scenarios. It is necessary to take measures to ensure adequate agricultural production due to possible flooding or soil erosion. |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| dc.date.issued.none.fl_str_mv |
2018 |
| dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2021-10-11T16:07:05Z |
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2021-10-11T16:07:05Z |
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Capítulo - Parte de Libro |
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http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248 |
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Text |
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https://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/CAP_LIB |
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http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248 |
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9783030044466 |
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https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1733 |
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9783030044466 |
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https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1733 |
| dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
eng |
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eng |
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248 |
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234 |
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N/A |
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Advances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change II |
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http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb |
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application/pdf |
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Springer Publishing Company, Inc. |
| dc.publisher.place.spa.fl_str_mv |
Estados Unidos |
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https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-04447-3_16 |
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Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavito |
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Duarte, Freddyb381e04f564c1a80be6f498684a69e56600Palacios, Jordi Rafael115cf3704d636aeb23d22e74ceacacc4600Santos, Germánd0c1f4791102de21c4b05b48bb235683600Centro de Estudios Hidráulicos2021-10-11T16:07:05Z2021-10-11T16:07:05Z20189783030044466https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/handle/001/1733In this paper we analyze the implications of different representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) on the precipitation of the Totaré River basin located in the Department of Tolima, Colombia, and its possible consequences on the productive systems of the area. In the analysis, we employed the global climatic model MPI-ESM-MR with 22 pluviographic stations of the IDEAM and the CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), a novel downscaling model for different intervals of accumulation of precipitation (5, 7, 10, 15 and 30 days). The results predict an increase of the precipitation in the Totaré River Basin from 10% to 50% for the middle and end of the century under all RCP scenarios. It is necessary to take measures to ensure adequate agricultural production due to possible flooding or soil erosion.En este trabajo se analizan las implicaciones de diferentes escenarios de vías de concentración representativas (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 y RCP8.5) sobre la precipitación de la cuenca del río Totaré ubicada en el departamento del Tolima, Colombia, y sus posibles consecuencias sobre los sistemas productivos de la zona. En el análisis se empleó el modelo climático global MPI-ESM-MR con 22 estaciones pluviográficas del IDEAM y el CSD (Chaotic Statistical Downscaling), un novedoso modelo de downscaling para diferentes intervalos de acumulación de precipitación (5, 7, 10, 15 y 30 días). Los resultados predicen un aumento de la precipitación en la cuenca del río Totaré del 10% al 50% para mediados y finales de siglo bajo todos los escenarios RCP. Es necesario tomar medidas para garantizar una producción agrícola adecuada debido a las posibles inundaciones o a la erosión del suelo.application/pdfengSpringer Publishing Company, Inc.Estados Unidoshttps://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-04447-3_16Evaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Basin Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change ScenariosCapítulo - Parte de Libroinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionhttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_3248Textinfo:eu-repo/semantics/bookParthttps://purl.org/redcol/resource_type/CAP_LIBhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85248234N/AAdvances in Information and Communication Technologies for Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change IIinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccesshttp://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cbAgriculturaAgriculturePrecipitationGCMAgriculturaPrecipitaciónGCMORIGINALEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdfEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdfapplication/pdf278511https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1733/1/Evaluation%20of%20Threats%20to%20Agriculture%20in%20the%20Totar%c3%a9%20River%20Due%20to%20Changes%20in%20Rainfall%20Patterns%20Under%20Climate%20Change%20Scenarios.pdf9d684f805e934076a216bb5fe8999223MD51open accessLICENSElicense.txtlicense.txttext/plain; charset=utf-81881https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1733/2/license.txt5a7ca94c2e5326ee169f979d71d0f06eMD52open accessTEXTEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdf.txtEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdf.txtExtracted texttext/plain4https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1733/3/Evaluation%20of%20Threats%20to%20Agriculture%20in%20the%20Totar%c3%a9%20River%20Due%20to%20Changes%20in%20Rainfall%20Patterns%20Under%20Climate%20Change%20Scenarios.pdf.txtce17bbb4d4f1cbe9a2413e4ea88bb0b2MD53open accessTHUMBNAILEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdf.jpgEvaluation of Threats to Agriculture in the Totaré River Due to Changes in Rainfall Patterns Under Climate Change Scenarios.pdf.jpgGenerated Thumbnailimage/jpeg6143https://repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co/bitstream/001/1733/4/Evaluation%20of%20Threats%20to%20Agriculture%20in%20the%20Totar%c3%a9%20River%20Due%20to%20Changes%20in%20Rainfall%20Patterns%20Under%20Climate%20Change%20Scenarios.pdf.jpg83087cb49247c298a60302b638a49de2MD54open access001/1733oai:repositorio.escuelaing.edu.co:001/17332024-01-26 12:09:38.742open accessRepositorio Escuela Colombiana de Ingeniería Julio Garavitorepositorio.eci@escuelaing.edu.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 |