Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associate...

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Autores:
Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2019
Institución:
Universidad del Rosario
Repositorio:
Repositorio EdocUR - U. Rosario
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/23873
Acceso en línea:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873
Palabra clave:
Climate change
Ecological modeling
Ecosystem function
Ecosystem service
Environmental indicator
Evapotranspiration
Future prospect
Land use change
Terrestrial ecosystem
Climate change projections
Ecosystem service indicators
Land use change
Legacy effects
Terrestrial ecosystems
Vegetation modeling
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Abierto (Texto Completo)
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oai_identifier_str oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/23873
network_acronym_str EDOCUR2
network_name_str Repositorio EdocUR - U. Rosario
repository_id_str
spelling 5eaf1d3b-59bc-40ec-a500-f814d10b6431-19f8678fa-c360-4bd6-8338-75a4153cd91f-1fddd8b2d-2638-48ff-bdc0-546bd7aa0b2b-1340352f6-0895-4509-9f7a-b07941475232-18297216004ebf6f2a-5446-42f6-9a21-eff8f32d9d50-154884a67-32df-48e5-b938-6d5dcb097063-12020-05-26T00:06:17Z2020-05-26T00:06:17Z2019Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to ?0.021 ± 0.007 and ?0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered. © 2019. The Authors.application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873engJohn Wiley and Sons Inc851No. 7833Earth`s FutureVol. 7Earth's Future, Vol.7, No.7 (2019); pp. 833-851https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85070432842&doi=10.1029%2f2018EF001123&partnerID=40&md5=d2b8e12430f234b82148ee2162559d4dAbierto (Texto Completo)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2instname:Universidad del Rosarioreponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURClimate changeEcological modelingEcosystem functionEcosystem serviceEnvironmental indicatorEvapotranspirationFuture prospectLand use changeTerrestrial ecosystemClimate change projectionsEcosystem service indicatorsLand use changeLegacy effectsTerrestrial ecosystemsVegetation modelingMultimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem FunctioningarticleArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Krause, A.Haverd, V.Poulter, B.Anthoni, P.Quesada, Benjamín RaphaelRammig, A.Arneth, A.10336/23873oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/238732022-05-02 07:37:21.249497https://repository.urosario.edu.coRepositorio institucional EdocURedocur@urosario.edu.co
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
spellingShingle Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
Climate change
Ecological modeling
Ecosystem function
Ecosystem service
Environmental indicator
Evapotranspiration
Future prospect
Land use change
Terrestrial ecosystem
Climate change projections
Ecosystem service indicators
Land use change
Legacy effects
Terrestrial ecosystems
Vegetation modeling
title_short Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_full Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_fullStr Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_full_unstemmed Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
title_sort Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv Climate change
Ecological modeling
Ecosystem function
Ecosystem service
Environmental indicator
Evapotranspiration
Future prospect
Land use change
Terrestrial ecosystem
Climate change projections
Ecosystem service indicators
Land use change
Legacy effects
Terrestrial ecosystems
Vegetation modeling
topic Climate change
Ecological modeling
Ecosystem function
Ecosystem service
Environmental indicator
Evapotranspiration
Future prospect
Land use change
Terrestrial ecosystem
Climate change projections
Ecosystem service indicators
Land use change
Legacy effects
Terrestrial ecosystems
Vegetation modeling
description Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to ?0.021 ± 0.007 and ?0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered. © 2019. The Authors.
publishDate 2019
dc.date.created.spa.fl_str_mv 2019
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-26T00:06:17Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-26T00:06:17Z
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv article
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.spa.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873
url https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001123
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23873
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.citationEndPage.none.fl_str_mv 851
dc.relation.citationIssue.none.fl_str_mv No. 7
dc.relation.citationStartPage.none.fl_str_mv 833
dc.relation.citationTitle.none.fl_str_mv Earth`s Future
dc.relation.citationVolume.none.fl_str_mv Vol. 7
dc.relation.ispartof.spa.fl_str_mv Earth's Future, Vol.7, No.7 (2019); pp. 833-851
dc.relation.uri.spa.fl_str_mv https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85070432842&doi=10.1029%2f2018EF001123&partnerID=40&md5=d2b8e12430f234b82148ee2162559d4d
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.acceso.spa.fl_str_mv Abierto (Texto Completo)
rights_invalid_str_mv Abierto (Texto Completo)
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.format.mimetype.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv John Wiley and Sons Inc
institution Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.instname.spa.fl_str_mv instname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio institucional EdocUR
repository.mail.fl_str_mv edocur@urosario.edu.co
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