CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance

La Incertidumbre de las políticas climáticas (CPU) y económicas (EPU), impactan en gran medida a los mercados financieros considerando su gran utilidad en la toma de decisiones de los inversionistas y la relevancia que tiene para los entes reguladores. La CPU hace referencia a la falta de claridad d...

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Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2024
Institución:
Universidad del Rosario
Repositorio:
Repositorio EdocUR - U. Rosario
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/44986
Acceso en línea:
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/44986
Palabra clave:
Incertidumbre Política Climática (CPU)
Incertidumbre Política Económica (EPU)
Mercados financieros
Volatilidad
Cambio climático
Regulaciones ambientales
Países emergentes
Países desarrollados
Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU)
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)
Financial markets
Volatility
Climate change
Environmental regulations
Emerging countries
Developed countries
Rights
License
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
id EDOCUR2_c27f74fed11602f157f6fdefc47c7bb4
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repository_id_str
dc.title.none.fl_str_mv CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
dc.title.TranslatedTitle.none.fl_str_mv CPU y EPU: La influencia de la incertidumbre climática y de política económica en el rendimiento financiero mundial
title CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
spellingShingle CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
Incertidumbre Política Climática (CPU)
Incertidumbre Política Económica (EPU)
Mercados financieros
Volatilidad
Cambio climático
Regulaciones ambientales
Países emergentes
Países desarrollados
Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU)
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)
Financial markets
Volatility
Climate change
Environmental regulations
Emerging countries
Developed countries
title_short CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
title_full CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
title_fullStr CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
title_full_unstemmed CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
title_sort CPU and EPU: The Influence of Climate and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Global Financial Performance
dc.contributor.advisor.none.fl_str_mv Molina Muñoz, Jesús Enrique
dc.subject.none.fl_str_mv Incertidumbre Política Climática (CPU)
Incertidumbre Política Económica (EPU)
Mercados financieros
Volatilidad
Cambio climático
Regulaciones ambientales
Países emergentes
Países desarrollados
topic Incertidumbre Política Climática (CPU)
Incertidumbre Política Económica (EPU)
Mercados financieros
Volatilidad
Cambio climático
Regulaciones ambientales
Países emergentes
Países desarrollados
Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU)
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)
Financial markets
Volatility
Climate change
Environmental regulations
Emerging countries
Developed countries
dc.subject.keyword.none.fl_str_mv Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU)
Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU)
Financial markets
Volatility
Climate change
Environmental regulations
Emerging countries
Developed countries
description La Incertidumbre de las políticas climáticas (CPU) y económicas (EPU), impactan en gran medida a los mercados financieros considerando su gran utilidad en la toma de decisiones de los inversionistas y la relevancia que tiene para los entes reguladores. La CPU hace referencia a la falta de claridad de las políticas gubernamentales del cambio climático de un futuro, y la EPU, es la incertidumbre de las políticas fiscales y monetarias que afectan la fiabilidad de los mercados financieros. Ambas incertidumbres provocan un nivel de volatilidad alto, generando que las personas sean más cautelosas al invertir. Tanto en los países desarrollados como emergentes, la CPU y EPU afectan incuestionablemente el rendimiento de sus economías. Por un lado, en los países desarrollados donde se encuentran mercados financieros más fuertes con políticas medioambientales superiores, cuentan con la dificultad de adaptarse a modelos más sostenibles. Por otra parte, la EPU y CPU en los países emergentes, tiene un nivel de afectación más alto dada la sensibilidad de los mercados financieros, incrementando la volatilidad del mercado, y generando que el acceso a capital extranjero se vea limitado. La relación entre el EPU, CPU y la volatilidad de los mercados financieros se puede analizar a partir de GARCH-MIDAS. Este es un modelo de regresión que permite capturar la variabilidad de la volatilidad en diferentes periodos de tiempo, proporcionando un análisis completo de las fluctuaciones que tienen los índices de la incertidumbre en las diferentes regiones.
publishDate 2024
dc.date.created.none.fl_str_mv 2024-11-15
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2025-02-17T14:29:01Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2025-02-17T14:29:01Z
dc.type.none.fl_str_mv bachelorThesis
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dc.type.spa.none.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/44986
url https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/44986
dc.language.iso.none.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.rights.*.fl_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.acceso.none.fl_str_mv Abierto (Texto Completo)
dc.rights.uri.*.fl_str_mv http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
rights_invalid_str_mv Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Abierto (Texto Completo)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.format.extent.none.fl_str_mv 52 pp
dc.format.mimetype.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad del Rosario
dc.publisher.department.none.fl_str_mv Escuela de Administración
dc.publisher.program.none.fl_str_mv Pregrado en Marketing y Negocios Digitales
publisher.none.fl_str_mv Universidad del Rosario
institution Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.bibliographicCitation.none.fl_str_mv Aizenman, J., & Jinjarak, Y. (2019). The impact of policy uncertainty on economic growth. NBER Working Paper Series. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w3848/w3848.pdf
Arouri, M. H., Ben Youssef, A., & Jawadi, F. (2010). Does climate change policy uncertainty lead to financial market instability? Economics Letters, 109(2), 120-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.08.015
Arouri, M. E., Nguyen, D. K., & Yoon, S. M. (2020). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from G7 countries. Journal of Economic Policy, 80, 597-612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.047
Aydin, M., Pata, U. K., & Inal, V. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: Evidence from asymmetric frequency domain causality approach. Applied Economic Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-09-2020-0129
Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024
Barnes, C., & Nae, R. (2024). The economic impact of fiscal policy uncertainty: Evidence from a new cross-country database. IMF Working Paper. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/journals/001/2024/209/article-A000-en.xml
Bauer, M. D., & Neely, C. J. (2014). International channels of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 49, 26-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.01.003
Benlemlih, M., & Yavaş, Ç. (2023). Economic policy uncertainty and climate change: Evidence from CO2 emission. Journal of Business Ethics, 191(1), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-023-05389-x
Bernanke, B. S., & Kuttner, K. N. (2005). What explains the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy? Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1221-1257. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00763.x
Black, F. (1976). Studies of stock price volatility changes. Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 177-181. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2014.49114
Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1
Bordo, M. D., & Levin, A. T. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and central bank independence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 118, 74-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.09.001
Bouri, E., Iqbal, N., & Klein, T. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and the price dynamics of green and brown energy stocks. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102740. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102740
Bredin, D., Larkin, C., & Muckley, C. (2016). The impact of public policy and regulations on the energy markets: An empirical analysis. Energy Economics, 58, 22-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.06.010
Brunnermeier, M. K. (2009). Deciphering the liquidity and credit crunch 2007-2008. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 77-100. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.1.77
Bush, G., & López Noria, G. (2021). Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico. International Review of Economics and Finance, 75, 704-722. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.05.011
Caceres, C., & Hopenhayn, H. (2019). Uncertainty and economic growth in Latin America. CEPAL. https://hdl.handle.net/11362/48581
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (2008). The econometrics of financial markets (Vol. 1). Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100598009092
Chen, Z., Zhang, L., & Weng, C. (2023). Does climate policy uncertainty affect Chinese stock market volatility? International Review of Economics & Finance, 84, 369-381. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v83y2023icp860-878.html
Dahlhaus, T., & otros. (2022). Fiscal policy uncertainty and investment: Evidence from emerging markets. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359428839_Fiscal_Policy_Uncertainty_and_In vestment_Evidence_from_Emerging_Markets
Dai, Z., & Zhang, X. (2023). Climate policy uncertainty and risks taken by the bank: Evidence from China. International Review Of Financial Analysis (Online)/International Review Of Financial Analysis, 87, 102579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102579
Diebold, F. X., & Yilmaz, K. (2009). Macroeconomic factors and financial market volatility. Journal of Econometrics, 156(2), 218-232. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.01.001
Engle, R. F., Gallo, G. M., & Caviar, J. (2013). The GARCH-MIDAS model: A new way to model the volatility of asset prices. Journal of Econometrics, 170(2), 112-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.03.005
Engle, R. F., & Rangel, J. G. (2013). The volatilities of volatility. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 11(4), 183-213. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbs019
Fried, J., & otros. (2021). Investor sentiment and sustainability: The impact of economic policy uncertainty on green investment. Journal of Financial Economics, 141(1), 34-52. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927539821000310
Fried, S., Novan, K., & Peterman, W. B. (2021). The Macro Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty. Federal Reserve Board. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021018pap.pdf
Ghirelli, C., Leiva-Leon, D., & Tena, J. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and the cost of capital. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 53(4), 1015-1041. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102070
He, M., & Zhang, Y. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and the stock return predictability of the oil industry. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 81, 101675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101675
Henríquez, E. M., & Gálvez-Gamboa, F. (2022). The effect of international economic policy uncertainty on Latin American financial markets. Estudios Gerenciales, 38(165), 519– 528. https://doi.org/10.18046/j.estger.2022.165.5383
Huang, H., Ali, S., & Solangi, Y. A. (2023). Analysis of the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Environmental Sustainability in Developed and Developing Economies. Sustainability, 15(7), 5860. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15075860
Li, H., Li, Y., & Guo, L. (2023). Extreme risk spillover effect and dynamic linkages between uncertainty and commodity markets: A comparison between China and America. Resources Policy, 85, 103839. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103839
Li, J., & Sun, Z. (2023). Climate Policy Uncertainty and Financial Markets: Evidence from Global Markets. Energy Economics, 105, 105892. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106475
Liu, J., & Wang, H. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and the cost of capital. International Review Of Financial Analysis, 81, 102070. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102070 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103839
Littlewood, D. (2019). Climate change uncertainty and the cost of capital. Climate Policy Uncertainty and Investment Risk, 19(8), 1048-1066. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264030152-en
Mandelbrot, B. (1963). The variation of certain speculative prices. Journal of Business, 36(4), 394-419. https://doi.org/10.1086/294632
Mokni, K., Hedhili Zaier, L., Youssef, M., & Ben Jabeur, S. (2024). Quantile connectedness between the climate policy and economic uncertainty: Evidence from the G7 countries. Journal of Environmental Management, 351, 119826. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119826
Ojeda-Joya, J., & Romero, J. V. (2023). Global EPU shocks drive significant upward revisions to exchange rate expectations: Evidence from Latin America. Economic Modelling, 120, 106185 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106185
Ren, X., Ji, Q., & Zhang, B. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and firm innovation: Evidence from China. Energy Economics, 108, 105914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106209
Sachs, J. D. (2015). The age of sustainable development. Columbia University Press. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSE-08-2016-0224
Tan, O. F. (2024). The Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty on ESG Ratings: Evidence from Latin American Countries. In Sustainable Finance: Challenges, Opportunities, and Future Prospects (pp. 59-76). https://doi.org/10.3390/systems12110495
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Tian, L., Sun, Y., & Zhang, X. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and the cost of capital: Evidence from China's carbon emissions trading scheme. Journal of Business Ethics, 1- 21. https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2023.2276062
United Nations. (2015). Transforming our world: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. United Nations. https://sdgs.un.org/2030agenda
Yao, X., He, W., Li, J., & Le, W. (2023). Climate policy uncertainty through production networks: Evidence from the stock market. Economics Letters, 233, 111405. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111405
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spelling Molina Muñoz, Jesús Enrique36eaa433-c7d9-4737-9491-c0b3406c99fa-1Dussán Téllez, JulianaPérez González, Paula ValentinaProfesional en Marketing y Negocios Digitalesc6f83c99-e0b1-43e1-8872-9ab728d9dd5b-1f50c9c23-5156-4f66-bbc8-70aef373e3da-12025-02-17T14:29:01Z2025-02-17T14:29:01Z2024-11-15La Incertidumbre de las políticas climáticas (CPU) y económicas (EPU), impactan en gran medida a los mercados financieros considerando su gran utilidad en la toma de decisiones de los inversionistas y la relevancia que tiene para los entes reguladores. La CPU hace referencia a la falta de claridad de las políticas gubernamentales del cambio climático de un futuro, y la EPU, es la incertidumbre de las políticas fiscales y monetarias que afectan la fiabilidad de los mercados financieros. Ambas incertidumbres provocan un nivel de volatilidad alto, generando que las personas sean más cautelosas al invertir. Tanto en los países desarrollados como emergentes, la CPU y EPU afectan incuestionablemente el rendimiento de sus economías. Por un lado, en los países desarrollados donde se encuentran mercados financieros más fuertes con políticas medioambientales superiores, cuentan con la dificultad de adaptarse a modelos más sostenibles. Por otra parte, la EPU y CPU en los países emergentes, tiene un nivel de afectación más alto dada la sensibilidad de los mercados financieros, incrementando la volatilidad del mercado, y generando que el acceso a capital extranjero se vea limitado. La relación entre el EPU, CPU y la volatilidad de los mercados financieros se puede analizar a partir de GARCH-MIDAS. Este es un modelo de regresión que permite capturar la variabilidad de la volatilidad en diferentes periodos de tiempo, proporcionando un análisis completo de las fluctuaciones que tienen los índices de la incertidumbre en las diferentes regiones.Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) and Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) have a major impact on financial markets considering their usefulness in investor decision-making and their relevance for regulators. CPU refers to the lack of clarity of future governmental climate change policies, and EPU is the uncertainty of fiscal and monetary policies that affect the reliability of financial markets. Both uncertainties cause a high level of volatility, making people more cautious when investing. In both developed and emerging countries, CPU and EPU unquestionably affect the performance of their economies. On the one hand, in developed countries, where there are stronger financial markets with superior environmental policies, it is difficult to adapt to more sustainable models. On the other hand, EPU and CPU in emerging countries have a higher level of impact given the sensitivity of the financial markets, increasing market volatility and limiting access to foreign capital. The relationship between EPU, CPU and volatility of financial markets can be analyzed using GARCH-MIDAS. This is a regression model that allows capturing the variability of volatility in different time periods, providing a complete analysis of the fluctuations of the uncertainty indexes in different regions.52 ppapplication/pdfhttps://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/44986engUniversidad del RosarioEscuela de AdministraciónPregrado en Marketing y Negocios DigitalesAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 InternationalAbierto (Texto Completo)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2Aizenman, J., & Jinjarak, Y. (2019). The impact of policy uncertainty on economic growth. NBER Working Paper Series. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w3848/w3848.pdfArouri, M. H., Ben Youssef, A., & Jawadi, F. (2010). Does climate change policy uncertainty lead to financial market instability? Economics Letters, 109(2), 120-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.08.015Arouri, M. E., Nguyen, D. K., & Yoon, S. M. (2020). The impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from G7 countries. Journal of Economic Policy, 80, 597-612. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2022.02.047Aydin, M., Pata, U. K., & Inal, V. (2021). Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: Evidence from asymmetric frequency domain causality approach. Applied Economic Analysis. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-09-2020-0129Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024Barnes, C., & Nae, R. (2024). The economic impact of fiscal policy uncertainty: Evidence from a new cross-country database. IMF Working Paper. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/journals/001/2024/209/article-A000-en.xmlBauer, M. D., & Neely, C. J. (2014). International channels of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance, 49, 26-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.01.003Benlemlih, M., & Yavaş, Ç. (2023). Economic policy uncertainty and climate change: Evidence from CO2 emission. Journal of Business Ethics, 191(1), 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-023-05389-xBernanke, B. S., & Kuttner, K. N. (2005). What explains the stock market’s reaction to Federal Reserve policy? Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1221-1257. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00763.xBlack, F. (1976). Studies of stock price volatility changes. Proceedings of the 1976 Meetings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 177-181. https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2014.49114Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics, 31(3), 307-327. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(86)90063-1Bordo, M. D., & Levin, A. T. (2022). Economic policy uncertainty and central bank independence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 118, 74-90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.09.001Bouri, E., Iqbal, N., & Klein, T. (2022). Climate policy uncertainty and the price dynamics of green and brown energy stocks. Finance Research Letters, 47, 102740. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102740Bredin, D., Larkin, C., & Muckley, C. (2016). The impact of public policy and regulations on the energy markets: An empirical analysis. Energy Economics, 58, 22-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.06.010Brunnermeier, M. K. (2009). Deciphering the liquidity and credit crunch 2007-2008. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 77-100. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.1.77Bush, G., & López Noria, G. (2021). Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico. International Review of Economics and Finance, 75, 704-722. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.05.011Caceres, C., & Hopenhayn, H. (2019). Uncertainty and economic growth in Latin America. CEPAL. https://hdl.handle.net/11362/48581Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (2008). The econometrics of financial markets (Vol. 1). Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1365100598009092Chen, Z., Zhang, L., & Weng, C. (2023). Does climate policy uncertainty affect Chinese stock market volatility? International Review of Economics & Finance, 84, 369-381. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v83y2023icp860-878.htmlDahlhaus, T., & otros. (2022). Fiscal policy uncertainty and investment: Evidence from emerging markets. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359428839_Fiscal_Policy_Uncertainty_and_In vestment_Evidence_from_Emerging_MarketsDai, Z., & Zhang, X. (2023). Climate policy uncertainty and risks taken by the bank: Evidence from China. International Review Of Financial Analysis (Online)/International Review Of Financial Analysis, 87, 102579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102579Diebold, F. X., & Yilmaz, K. (2009). 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