Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following m...
- Autores:
- Tipo de recurso:
- Fecha de publicación:
- 2020
- Institución:
- Universidad del Rosario
- Repositorio:
- Repositorio EdocUR - U. Rosario
- Idioma:
- eng
- OAI Identifier:
- oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/23950
- Acceso en línea:
- https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950
- Palabra clave:
- Climate change
Deforestation
Electric power system interconnection
Land use
Rain
Attribution
Extreme weather events
Heavy precipitation
Model inter comparisons
Northeastern Brazil
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
Total precipitation
Extreme weather
Anthropogenic effect
Climate modeling
Deforestation
Drought
Extreme event
Land cover
Land use
Rainfall
Twenty first century
Africa
Amazonia
Asia
Brazil
Attribution
Deforestation
Model intercomparison
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
- Rights
- License
- Abierto (Texto Completo)
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cd879e68-b1d6-4283-9598-3f7a8d01b98d-18297216002020-05-26T00:06:59Z2020-05-26T00:06:59Z2020Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following modelling over the historical period (often based on a single model), regional or idealized studies. Here, using simulations performed with five earth system models under common future global LCC scenarios (the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways) and analyzing 20 extreme weather indices, we find future LCC substantially modulates projected weather extremes. On average by the end of the 21st century, under RCP8.5, future LCC robustly lessens global projections of high rainfall extremes by 22% for heavy precipitation days (>10 mm) and by 16% for total precipitation amount of wet days (PRCPTOT). Accounting for LCC diminishes their regional projections by >50% (70%) in southern Africa (northeastern Brazil) but intensifies projected dry days in eastern Africa by 29%. LCC does not substantially affect projections of global and regional temperature extremes ( less than 5%), but it can impact global rainfall extremes 2.5 times more than global mean rainfall projections. Under an RCP2.6 scenario, global LCC impacts are similar but of lesser magnitude, while at regional scale in Amazon or Asia, LCC enhances drought projections. We stress here that multi-coupled modelling frameworks incorporating all aspects of land use are needed for reliable projections of extreme events. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c17489326https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950engInstitute of Physics PublishingNo. 3Environmental Research LettersVol. 15Environmental Research Letters, ISSN:17489326, Vol.15, No.3 (2020)https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85082649050&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2fab702c&partnerID=40&md5=48d3dc24ee885e8e3bde2c79aead1f2eAbierto (Texto Completo)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2instname:Universidad del Rosarioreponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURClimate changeDeforestationElectric power system interconnectionLand useRainAttributionExtreme weather eventsHeavy precipitationModel inter comparisonsNortheastern BrazilRainfall extremesTemperature extremesTotal precipitationExtreme weatherAnthropogenic effectClimate modelingDeforestationDroughtExtreme eventLand coverLand useRainfallTwenty first centuryAfricaAmazoniaAsiaBrazilAttributionDeforestationModel intercomparisonRainfall extremesTemperature extremesAnthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st centuryarticleArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Sy, SouleymaneQuesada, Benjamín Raphael10336/23950oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/239502022-05-02 07:37:21.302081https://repository.urosario.edu.coRepositorio institucional EdocURedocur@urosario.edu.co |
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century |
title |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century |
spellingShingle |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century Climate change Deforestation Electric power system interconnection Land use Rain Attribution Extreme weather events Heavy precipitation Model inter comparisons Northeastern Brazil Rainfall extremes Temperature extremes Total precipitation Extreme weather Anthropogenic effect Climate modeling Deforestation Drought Extreme event Land cover Land use Rainfall Twenty first century Africa Amazonia Asia Brazil Attribution Deforestation Model intercomparison Rainfall extremes Temperature extremes |
title_short |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century |
title_full |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century |
title_sort |
Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century |
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv |
Climate change Deforestation Electric power system interconnection Land use Rain Attribution Extreme weather events Heavy precipitation Model inter comparisons Northeastern Brazil Rainfall extremes Temperature extremes Total precipitation Extreme weather Anthropogenic effect Climate modeling Deforestation Drought Extreme event Land cover Land use Rainfall Twenty first century Africa Amazonia Asia Brazil Attribution Deforestation Model intercomparison Rainfall extremes Temperature extremes |
topic |
Climate change Deforestation Electric power system interconnection Land use Rain Attribution Extreme weather events Heavy precipitation Model inter comparisons Northeastern Brazil Rainfall extremes Temperature extremes Total precipitation Extreme weather Anthropogenic effect Climate modeling Deforestation Drought Extreme event Land cover Land use Rainfall Twenty first century Africa Amazonia Asia Brazil Attribution Deforestation Model intercomparison Rainfall extremes Temperature extremes |
description |
Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following modelling over the historical period (often based on a single model), regional or idealized studies. Here, using simulations performed with five earth system models under common future global LCC scenarios (the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways) and analyzing 20 extreme weather indices, we find future LCC substantially modulates projected weather extremes. On average by the end of the 21st century, under RCP8.5, future LCC robustly lessens global projections of high rainfall extremes by 22% for heavy precipitation days (>10 mm) and by 16% for total precipitation amount of wet days (PRCPTOT). Accounting for LCC diminishes their regional projections by >50% (70%) in southern Africa (northeastern Brazil) but intensifies projected dry days in eastern Africa by 29%. LCC does not substantially affect projections of global and regional temperature extremes ( less than 5%), but it can impact global rainfall extremes 2.5 times more than global mean rainfall projections. Under an RCP2.6 scenario, global LCC impacts are similar but of lesser magnitude, while at regional scale in Amazon or Asia, LCC enhances drought projections. We stress here that multi-coupled modelling frameworks incorporating all aspects of land use are needed for reliable projections of extreme events. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. |
publishDate |
2020 |
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-26T00:06:59Z |
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv |
2020-05-26T00:06:59Z |
dc.date.created.spa.fl_str_mv |
2020 |
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv |
article |
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 |
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 |
dc.type.spa.spa.fl_str_mv |
Artículo |
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c |
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv |
17489326 |
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv |
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950 |
identifier_str_mv |
17489326 |
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv |
eng |
language |
eng |
dc.relation.citationIssue.none.fl_str_mv |
No. 3 |
dc.relation.citationTitle.none.fl_str_mv |
Environmental Research Letters |
dc.relation.citationVolume.none.fl_str_mv |
Vol. 15 |
dc.relation.ispartof.spa.fl_str_mv |
Environmental Research Letters, ISSN:17489326, Vol.15, No.3 (2020) |
dc.relation.uri.spa.fl_str_mv |
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85082649050&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2fab702c&partnerID=40&md5=48d3dc24ee885e8e3bde2c79aead1f2e |
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv |
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.rights.acceso.spa.fl_str_mv |
Abierto (Texto Completo) |
rights_invalid_str_mv |
Abierto (Texto Completo) http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 |
dc.format.mimetype.none.fl_str_mv |
application/pdf |
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv |
Institute of Physics Publishing |
institution |
Universidad del Rosario |
dc.source.instname.spa.fl_str_mv |
instname:Universidad del Rosario |
dc.source.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv |
reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR |
repository.name.fl_str_mv |
Repositorio institucional EdocUR |
repository.mail.fl_str_mv |
edocur@urosario.edu.co |
_version_ |
1814167647975112704 |