Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century

Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following m...

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Tipo de recurso:
Fecha de publicación:
2020
Institución:
Universidad del Rosario
Repositorio:
Repositorio EdocUR - U. Rosario
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/23950
Acceso en línea:
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950
Palabra clave:
Climate change
Deforestation
Electric power system interconnection
Land use
Rain
Attribution
Extreme weather events
Heavy precipitation
Model inter comparisons
Northeastern Brazil
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
Total precipitation
Extreme weather
Anthropogenic effect
Climate modeling
Deforestation
Drought
Extreme event
Land cover
Land use
Rainfall
Twenty first century
Africa
Amazonia
Asia
Brazil
Attribution
Deforestation
Model intercomparison
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
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repository_id_str
spelling cd879e68-b1d6-4283-9598-3f7a8d01b98d-18297216002020-05-26T00:06:59Z2020-05-26T00:06:59Z2020Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following modelling over the historical period (often based on a single model), regional or idealized studies. Here, using simulations performed with five earth system models under common future global LCC scenarios (the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways) and analyzing 20 extreme weather indices, we find future LCC substantially modulates projected weather extremes. On average by the end of the 21st century, under RCP8.5, future LCC robustly lessens global projections of high rainfall extremes by 22% for heavy precipitation days (>10 mm) and by 16% for total precipitation amount of wet days (PRCPTOT). Accounting for LCC diminishes their regional projections by >50% (70%) in southern Africa (northeastern Brazil) but intensifies projected dry days in eastern Africa by 29%. LCC does not substantially affect projections of global and regional temperature extremes ( less than 5%), but it can impact global rainfall extremes 2.5 times more than global mean rainfall projections. Under an RCP2.6 scenario, global LCC impacts are similar but of lesser magnitude, while at regional scale in Amazon or Asia, LCC enhances drought projections. We stress here that multi-coupled modelling frameworks incorporating all aspects of land use are needed for reliable projections of extreme events. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c17489326https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950engInstitute of Physics PublishingNo. 3Environmental Research LettersVol. 15Environmental Research Letters, ISSN:17489326, Vol.15, No.3 (2020)https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85082649050&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2fab702c&partnerID=40&md5=48d3dc24ee885e8e3bde2c79aead1f2eAbierto (Texto Completo)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2instname:Universidad del Rosarioreponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURClimate changeDeforestationElectric power system interconnectionLand useRainAttributionExtreme weather eventsHeavy precipitationModel inter comparisonsNortheastern BrazilRainfall extremesTemperature extremesTotal precipitationExtreme weatherAnthropogenic effectClimate modelingDeforestationDroughtExtreme eventLand coverLand useRainfallTwenty first centuryAfricaAmazoniaAsiaBrazilAttributionDeforestationModel intercomparisonRainfall extremesTemperature extremesAnthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st centuryarticleArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Sy, SouleymaneQuesada, Benjamín Raphael10336/23950oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/239502022-05-02 07:37:21.302081https://repository.urosario.edu.coRepositorio institucional EdocURedocur@urosario.edu.co
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
title Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
spellingShingle Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
Climate change
Deforestation
Electric power system interconnection
Land use
Rain
Attribution
Extreme weather events
Heavy precipitation
Model inter comparisons
Northeastern Brazil
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
Total precipitation
Extreme weather
Anthropogenic effect
Climate modeling
Deforestation
Drought
Extreme event
Land cover
Land use
Rainfall
Twenty first century
Africa
Amazonia
Asia
Brazil
Attribution
Deforestation
Model intercomparison
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
title_short Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
title_full Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
title_fullStr Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
title_full_unstemmed Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
title_sort Anthropogenic land cover change impact on climate extremes during the 21st century
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv Climate change
Deforestation
Electric power system interconnection
Land use
Rain
Attribution
Extreme weather events
Heavy precipitation
Model inter comparisons
Northeastern Brazil
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
Total precipitation
Extreme weather
Anthropogenic effect
Climate modeling
Deforestation
Drought
Extreme event
Land cover
Land use
Rainfall
Twenty first century
Africa
Amazonia
Asia
Brazil
Attribution
Deforestation
Model intercomparison
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
topic Climate change
Deforestation
Electric power system interconnection
Land use
Rain
Attribution
Extreme weather events
Heavy precipitation
Model inter comparisons
Northeastern Brazil
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
Total precipitation
Extreme weather
Anthropogenic effect
Climate modeling
Deforestation
Drought
Extreme event
Land cover
Land use
Rainfall
Twenty first century
Africa
Amazonia
Asia
Brazil
Attribution
Deforestation
Model intercomparison
Rainfall extremes
Temperature extremes
description Anthropogenic land cover change (LCC) can have significant impacts at regional and seasonal scales but also for extreme weather events to which socio-economical systems are vulnerable. However, the effects of LCC on extreme events remain either largely unexplored and/or without consensus following modelling over the historical period (often based on a single model), regional or idealized studies. Here, using simulations performed with five earth system models under common future global LCC scenarios (the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 Representative Concentration Pathways) and analyzing 20 extreme weather indices, we find future LCC substantially modulates projected weather extremes. On average by the end of the 21st century, under RCP8.5, future LCC robustly lessens global projections of high rainfall extremes by 22% for heavy precipitation days (>10 mm) and by 16% for total precipitation amount of wet days (PRCPTOT). Accounting for LCC diminishes their regional projections by >50% (70%) in southern Africa (northeastern Brazil) but intensifies projected dry days in eastern Africa by 29%. LCC does not substantially affect projections of global and regional temperature extremes ( less than 5%), but it can impact global rainfall extremes 2.5 times more than global mean rainfall projections. Under an RCP2.6 scenario, global LCC impacts are similar but of lesser magnitude, while at regional scale in Amazon or Asia, LCC enhances drought projections. We stress here that multi-coupled modelling frameworks incorporating all aspects of land use are needed for reliable projections of extreme events. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
publishDate 2020
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-26T00:06:59Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-05-26T00:06:59Z
dc.date.created.spa.fl_str_mv 2020
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv article
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.spa.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv 17489326
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950
url https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab702c
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/23950
identifier_str_mv 17489326
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.citationIssue.none.fl_str_mv No. 3
dc.relation.citationTitle.none.fl_str_mv Environmental Research Letters
dc.relation.citationVolume.none.fl_str_mv Vol. 15
dc.relation.ispartof.spa.fl_str_mv Environmental Research Letters, ISSN:17489326, Vol.15, No.3 (2020)
dc.relation.uri.spa.fl_str_mv https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85082649050&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2fab702c&partnerID=40&md5=48d3dc24ee885e8e3bde2c79aead1f2e
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.rights.acceso.spa.fl_str_mv Abierto (Texto Completo)
rights_invalid_str_mv Abierto (Texto Completo)
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
dc.format.mimetype.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Institute of Physics Publishing
institution Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.instname.spa.fl_str_mv instname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.reponame.spa.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio institucional EdocUR
repository.mail.fl_str_mv edocur@urosario.edu.co
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