Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs

The mega heatwaves that struck western Europe in 2003 (ref. 1) and Russia in 2010 (ref. 2) are thought to provide a foretaste of future European summer climate3,4,5,6,7. Our ability to anticipate such events remains poor8, limiting adequate society adaptation. A deficit of precipitation in the prece...

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Fecha de publicación:
2012
Institución:
Universidad del Rosario
Repositorio:
Repositorio EdocUR - U. Rosario
Idioma:
eng
OAI Identifier:
oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/27262
Acceso en línea:
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1536
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/27262
Palabra clave:
Climate sciences
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id EDOCUR2_2bf6f2cbdedf44415f296d3697846c6f
oai_identifier_str oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/27262
network_acronym_str EDOCUR2
network_name_str Repositorio EdocUR - U. Rosario
repository_id_str
spelling 829721600c58dc760-fafa-40f2-b8a3-d3c4d443c59b-105a8024d-71d5-416f-a813-0be7b8f0e283-1d24babeb-eb67-4cfe-bcce-b5f4d134ea83-146697c55-9c61-4c5e-a4f3-01ff68afd9c5-12020-08-19T14:41:32Z2020-08-19T14:41:32Z2012-05-27The mega heatwaves that struck western Europe in 2003 (ref. 1) and Russia in 2010 (ref. 2) are thought to provide a foretaste of future European summer climate3,4,5,6,7. Our ability to anticipate such events remains poor8, limiting adequate society adaptation. A deficit of precipitation in the preceding months favours summer heatwaves9,10,11,12,13, but the potential predictability from spring surface-moisture deficits, addressed in only a few case studies8,14,15, largely remains to be investigated. By analysing 64 years of observed temperature and precipitation we show that rainy winter/spring seasons over southern Europe inhibit hot summer days whereas dry seasons are followed by either a high or a low frequency of hot days, generalizing findings obtained over southeastern Europe10. Observations indicate that summer heat is more sensitive to the occurrence of specific weather regimes in initially dry cases than wet cases, inducing this asymmetry in summer heat predictability. Then, simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ref. 16 and J-L., Dufresne, manuscript in preparation) indicate that projected drier conditions over southern Europe are likely to induce a widening in the frequency distribution of hot summer days, as the wet winter/spring seasons are likely to become rare. These mechanisms are found to play an increasingly important role in coming decades, with more hot extremes and a modified hot-day predictability.application/pdfhttps://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1536ISSN: 1758-678XEISSN: 1758-6798https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/27262engSpringer Nature741No. 10736Nature Climate ChangeVol. 2Nature Climate Change, ISSN: 1758-678X;EISSN: 1758-6798, Vol.2, No.10 (October 2012); pp. 736–741https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1536Restringido (Acceso a grupos específicos)http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ecNature Climate Changeinstname:Universidad del Rosarioreponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocURClimate sciencesAsymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springsPrevisibilidad asimétrica del calor del verano europeo a partir de inviernos y primaveras del sur húmedos y secosarticleArtículohttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501Quesada, Benjamín RaphaelVautard, RobertYiou, PascalHirschi, MartinSeneviratne, Sonia I.10336/27262oai:repository.urosario.edu.co:10336/272622021-06-03 00:50:08.834https://repository.urosario.edu.coRepositorio institucional EdocURedocur@urosario.edu.co
dc.title.spa.fl_str_mv Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
dc.title.TranslatedTitle.spa.fl_str_mv Previsibilidad asimétrica del calor del verano europeo a partir de inviernos y primaveras del sur húmedos y secos
title Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
spellingShingle Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
Climate sciences
title_short Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
title_full Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
title_fullStr Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
title_full_unstemmed Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
title_sort Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs
dc.subject.keyword.spa.fl_str_mv Climate sciences
topic Climate sciences
description The mega heatwaves that struck western Europe in 2003 (ref. 1) and Russia in 2010 (ref. 2) are thought to provide a foretaste of future European summer climate3,4,5,6,7. Our ability to anticipate such events remains poor8, limiting adequate society adaptation. A deficit of precipitation in the preceding months favours summer heatwaves9,10,11,12,13, but the potential predictability from spring surface-moisture deficits, addressed in only a few case studies8,14,15, largely remains to be investigated. By analysing 64 years of observed temperature and precipitation we show that rainy winter/spring seasons over southern Europe inhibit hot summer days whereas dry seasons are followed by either a high or a low frequency of hot days, generalizing findings obtained over southeastern Europe10. Observations indicate that summer heat is more sensitive to the occurrence of specific weather regimes in initially dry cases than wet cases, inducing this asymmetry in summer heat predictability. Then, simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (ref. 16 and J-L., Dufresne, manuscript in preparation) indicate that projected drier conditions over southern Europe are likely to induce a widening in the frequency distribution of hot summer days, as the wet winter/spring seasons are likely to become rare. These mechanisms are found to play an increasingly important role in coming decades, with more hot extremes and a modified hot-day predictability.
publishDate 2012
dc.date.created.spa.fl_str_mv 2012-05-27
dc.date.accessioned.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08-19T14:41:32Z
dc.date.available.none.fl_str_mv 2020-08-19T14:41:32Z
dc.type.eng.fl_str_mv article
dc.type.coarversion.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
dc.type.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501
dc.type.spa.spa.fl_str_mv Artículo
dc.identifier.doi.none.fl_str_mv https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1536
dc.identifier.issn.none.fl_str_mv ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
dc.identifier.uri.none.fl_str_mv https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/27262
url https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1536
https://repository.urosario.edu.co/handle/10336/27262
identifier_str_mv ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
dc.language.iso.spa.fl_str_mv eng
language eng
dc.relation.citationEndPage.none.fl_str_mv 741
dc.relation.citationIssue.none.fl_str_mv No. 10
dc.relation.citationStartPage.none.fl_str_mv 736
dc.relation.citationTitle.none.fl_str_mv Nature Climate Change
dc.relation.citationVolume.none.fl_str_mv Vol. 2
dc.relation.ispartof.spa.fl_str_mv Nature Climate Change, ISSN: 1758-678X;EISSN: 1758-6798, Vol.2, No.10 (October 2012); pp. 736–741
dc.relation.uri.spa.fl_str_mv https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1536
dc.rights.coar.fl_str_mv http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec
dc.rights.acceso.spa.fl_str_mv Restringido (Acceso a grupos específicos)
rights_invalid_str_mv Restringido (Acceso a grupos específicos)
http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_16ec
dc.format.mimetype.none.fl_str_mv application/pdf
dc.publisher.spa.fl_str_mv Springer Nature
dc.source.spa.fl_str_mv Nature Climate Change
institution Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.instname.none.fl_str_mv instname:Universidad del Rosario
dc.source.reponame.none.fl_str_mv reponame:Repositorio Institucional EdocUR
repository.name.fl_str_mv Repositorio institucional EdocUR
repository.mail.fl_str_mv edocur@urosario.edu.co
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