Prediction of the availability of carbon reserves through the probabilistic random walk for the year 2015 in Colombia

Background: From a methodology based on probabilistic random walk, apparently random phenomena as epidemic outbreaks have been studied, achieving physic-mathematical predictions with percentages higher than 90%. Objective : to predict the availability of the carbon reservoir for the year 2015 in Colombia through probabilistic random walk. Material and methods: values reported by the DANE between 1994 and 2015 of the availability of carbon reservoirs were taken and analyzed to apply a methodology based on probabilistic random walk and give a predictive value for the year 2015. Results: it was predicted a value of 67,33 for the availability of carbon reservoirs in 2015; a success percentage of 92,24% was achieved with regards to the real value reported by the DANE for the year 2015. Conclusions: the behavior of the availability of the carbon reservoirs in Colombia obeys to a predictable probabilistic behavior based on a methodology grounded in the random walk, being useful for the decision making and public policies. © 2019 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd.

• Autores: Rodríguez, J; Correa, C; Oviedo, Elizabeth; Sandoval Sanchez, Nubia Mireya; Prieto, S
• Tipo de recurso: Article of journal
• Fecha de publicación: 2019
• Institución: Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia
• Repositorio: Repositorio UCC
• OAI Identifier: oai:repository.ucc.edu.co:20.500.12494/41723
• Acceso en línea: https://doi.org/10.15446/agron.colomb.v34n1supl.57645; http://erevistas.saber.ula.ve/index.php/actualidadcontable/article/view/11175/21921922283; https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12494/41723
• Palabra clave: Decision making; Forecasting; Random processes; Carbon reservoirs; Colombia; Predictive values; Probabilistic behavior; Random Walk; Real values; Carbon
• Rights: closedAccess
• License: http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb