Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014–2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

Background. Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika are three different arboviruses which have similar symp- toms and are a major public health issue in Colombia. Despite the mandatory reporting of these arboviruses to the National Surveillance System in Colombia (SIVIGILA), it has been reported that the system captures less than 10% of diagnosed cases in some cities. Methodology/Principal findings. To assess the scope and degree of arboviruses reporting in Colombia between 2014–2017, we conducted an observational study of surveillance data using the capture-recapture approach in three Colombian cities. Using healthcare facility registries (capture data) and surveillance-notified cases (recapture data), we estimated the degree of reporting by clinical diagnosis. We fit robust Poisson regressions to identify predictors of reporting and estimated the predicted probability of reporting by disease and year. To account for the potential mis- classification of the clinical diagnosis, we used the simulation extrapolation for misclassifica- tion (MC-SIMEX) method. A total of 266,549 registries were examined. Overall arboviruses’ reporting ranged from 5.3% to 14.7% and varied in magnitude according to age and year of diagnosis. Dengue was the most notified disease (21–70%) followed by Zika (6–45%). The highest reporting rate was seen in 2016, an epidemic year. The MC-SIMEX corrected rates indicated underestimation of the reporting due to the potential misclassification bias. Conclusions. These findings reflect challenges on arboviruses’ reporting, and therefore, potential chal- lenges on the estimation of arboviral burden in Colombia and other endemic settings with similar surveillance systems.

• Autores: Carabali, Mabel; Jaramillo Ramírez, Gloria Isabel; Rivera, Vivian; Mina, Neila-Julieth; Restrepo, Berta; Zinszer, Kate
• Tipo de recurso: Article of investigation
• Fecha de publicación: 2021
• Institución: Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia
• Repositorio: Repositorio UCC
• OAI Identifier: oai:repository.ucc.edu.co:20.500.12494/46666
• Acceso en línea: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pntd.0009014; https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12494/46666
• Palabra clave: Salud pública, arbovirus, subregistro, vigilancia; Public health; arboviruses; underreporting; surveillance
• Rights: openAccess
• License: Atribución